“If you thought Ohio Republicans’ 12R-4D map this past decade was an aggressive gerrymander, just wait until you see this 13R-2D (!) map, which could wipe out half of the Dems’ House majority in just one state,” wrote Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman on Twitter.
While Wasserman’s map is not an accurate description of what Ohio’s congressional delegation would be in 2022, it is a preview of what Republicans may do to better their position throughout the redistricting process.
“Yes, there’s a new commission in OH, but Republicans could easily go around it if it deadlocks...and this map would put both #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) and #OH13 Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in brutal districts that voted for Trump by 10+,” Wasserman continued. “And even worse for Dems, the 13R-2D map above *complies* w/ OH’s new anti-gerrymander criteria, including keeping the cities of Cleveland & Cincinnati whole and minimizing split counties.”
Republicans will gain control over a large part of redistricting thanks to their performance in down-ballot races throughout the 2020 election. Despite forecasts of a potential “blue wave,” Democrats were not able to flip a single state legislative chamber away from Republican territory in 2020. In many states, the state legislature manages the process of bringing new congressional districts every 10 years.
“Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent,” wrote FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver after the election.
“How did Republicans pull that off?” Silver asked. “By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake.”
Wasserman marked that the GOP’s remarkable success will have implications reaching far past Ohio.
“FL is a big problem for Dems in many respects, including redistricting next year,” Wasserman wrote on Twitter. “It wouldn’t be that hard for Rs to convert the current 15-12 Trump district map into an 18-11 Trump district map, as I’ve drawn below.”
“I’d expect Rs to attempt to purge Miami Beach and Brickell from #FL27 to try to shore up Rep.-elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R),” he continued. “It’s a safe bet there will also be new, safely R districts (#FL28 and #FL29) in high-growth areas of south & north central FL.”
“FL Republicans could try to get even more aggressive, but would risk courts striking their map down under FL’s Fair Districts amendment,” he said. “This map simply protects every sitting Dem & GOP incumbent and gives Rs both of FL’s new seats.”