This is the lowest annual birth rate recorded since 1979, according to newly released data.
The decline in US births has been a trend for over a decade, with a significant 4% drop from 2019 to 2020, coinciding with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a slight increase was observed in the two subsequent years, a phenomenon experts partially attribute to couples resuming postponed pregnancies during the early stages of the pandemic.
"The 2023 numbers seem to indicate that bump is over and we’re back to the trends we were in before," stated Nicholas Mark, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin who specializes in the influence of social policy and other factors on health and fertility.
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Historically, birth rates have been declining among teenagers and younger women, while increasing among women in their 30s and 40s. This shift is generally attributed to women prioritizing education and career advancement before starting families. However, in 2023, birth rates fell across all age groups under 40, and remained stagnant for women in their 40s.
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Mark described this development as surprising, suggesting that "there’s some evidence that not just postponement is going on." The decline was observed across nearly all racial and ethnic groups.
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The data, based on over 99.9% of birth certificates filed in 2023, are provisional and subject to change upon finalization. For instance, the provisional birth count for 2022 initially indicated a decrease, but the final count exceeded the 2021 tally.
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Despite potential adjustments to the 2023 data, Brady Hamilton of the CDC, the report's primary author, believes the "sizeable" decline in the provisional numbers will remain.
The report also explored the potential impact of the June 2022 US Supreme Court decision allowing states to restrict or ban abortion. With nearly half of pregnancies estimated to be unintended, limitations on abortion access could influence birth rates.
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However, the report found no evidence of a national increase in births following the decision. The researchers did not analyze birth trends at the state level or dissect data among all demographic groups.
The report did highlight a potential impact on teenage birth rates. While the US teen birth rate has been declining for decades, the decrease has slowed in recent years, and appears to have plateaued for girls aged 15 to 17.
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Dr. John Santelli, a professor at Columbia University, suggested this could be related to the Supreme Court decision, changes in sex education, or access to contraception. He expressed concern over the stagnation of birth rates among high school students, indicating that "whatever we’re doing for kids in middle and high school is faltering."
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Between 2022 and 2023, the provisional number of births fell by 5% for American Indian and Alaska Native women, 4% for Black women, 3% for white women, and 2% for Asian American women. Conversely, births among Hispanic women increased by 1%.
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The rate of cesarean section births also rose to 32.4%, sparking concern among experts who believe C-sections are performed more frequently than medically necessary.
The US was once among a few developed countries with a fertility rate that ensured each generation could replace itself — approximately 2.1 children per woman. However, this rate has been declining and dropped to about 1.6 in 2023, the lowest on record.
Surveys suggest that many US couples aspire to have two or more children but perceive housing, job security, and childcare costs as significant barriers.
"There’s something getting in the way of them being able to achieve those goals," concluded Mark.
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