Democrats pivoted from a nine-percentage-point advantage in the first quarter of 2021 to a rare five-point deficit to the GOP in the fourth quarter, Gallup said Monday.
A total of 49% of Americans considered themselves Democrat in last year's first quarter. And yet, that number fell to 42% in the final quarter. Survey respondents identifying as Republican increased from 40% to 47% during the same period.
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The survey results were based on aggregated data from all U.S. Gallup telephone surveys in 2021, which included interviews with over 12,000 randomly sampled adults.
The fourth-quarter numbers belied the overall 2021 average that conveyed slightly more U.S. adults identified as Democrats or leaned Democratic (46%) than identified as Republicans or leaned Republican (43%).
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Gallup's latest monthly estimate, from December, showed the two parties almost even — 46% Republican/Republican leaning and 44% Democratic/Democratic leaning.
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Gallup asserted that both the nine-point Democrat advantage in the first quarter and the five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter were among the largest it had measured for each party in any quarter since the year 1991.
Republicans held as much as a five-point advantage in a total of only four quarters during the past 31 years, the last time being in early 1995 when they held a five-point edge after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s.
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The GOP held a larger advantage only in the first quarter of 1991, after the U.S. victory in the Persian Gulf War led by then-President George H.W. Bush.
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Democrats' lead in the first quarter was the largest for the party since the fourth quarter of 2012 when the party also had a nine-point advantage. Democrats held double-digit advantages in specific quarters between 1992 and 1999, and essentially continuously between mid-2006 and early 2009.
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Gallup said that the shift in 2021 party preferences was likely tied to President Joe Biden's terrible first year in office.
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After enjoying relatively high ratings upon taking office on Jan. 20, Biden's approval ratings have been in free fall since the disastrous troop withdrawal from Afghanistan in late August.
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The President's ratings have continued to plunge as the U.S. battles rising inflation and another surge of COVID-19 due to the Omicron variant.
Among Americans claiming to be core supporters, Democrats (29%) and Republicans (27%) both trailed Independents (42%).
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