The Ohio Political Shake-Up: What's Behind The State's Drift From Red to Blue?

However, the political landscape of the state underwent a significant shift with the advent of Donald Trump's presidency in 2016. The New York businessman's distinctive brand of politics resonated with a large number of Ohio voters, turning the state into a Republican stronghold.

Trump's victory in Ohio in 2020, despite losing the presidency, marked the first time since 1960 that a presidential candidate won the state but lost the election. Consequently, Ohio's status as a bellwether state was effectively nullified.

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Recent developments, however, suggest a potential shift in Ohio's political dynamics. The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to overturn federal constitutional protections for abortion in 2022 sparked a strong response from Ohio voters. They overwhelmingly approved an amendment to the state constitution that enshrines abortion rights, defeating a Republican initiative that sought to make such an amendment more challenging. The state also legalized recreational marijuana use.

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While it is crucial not to overinterpret the results from 2023, these victories have given Democrats, who are defending a key U.S. Senate seat this year, a glimmer of hope. Elizabeth Walters, Chair of the Ohio Democratic Party, stated that the failed Republican attempt to make constitutional amendments more difficult in August revealed to Ohioans that "Republican politicians were not on their side." She expressed cautious optimism that with consistent effort, Ohio could gradually lean more towards the left in future elections.

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March 12, 2024

The immediate challenge for Democrats is the re-election of three-term U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown. Although he faces no opposition in the March 19 primary, Brown is considered one of the most vulnerable Democrats in the November general election. This election will also see Ohio voters casting their ballots for the president and Congress.

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Janelle Tucker, a 53-year-old voter from Delaware County, expressed uncertainty about the outcome of the fall elections. Despite being a Democrat and a staunch supporter of Brown, she admitted that she could not predict how Ohio would vote. "Ohio used to be sort of the pulse of the voter, and it’s not anymore," she said. "It’s fascinating because it seems like the voter strongly approved women’s rights, but the representatives don’t support the voters."

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Brown is a rare Democrat to have been elected statewide in Ohio. Republicans currently hold every non-judicial statewide office, both chambers of the state Legislature with supermajorities, and the Ohio Supreme Court.

Mark Weaver, a seasoned Ohio-based Republican consultant, dismissed suggestions that Ohio was turning purple again. He attributed the success of November's Issue 1, which guaranteed an individual’s right "to make and carry out one’s own reproductive decisions," to abortion rights groups outspending their anti-abortion counterparts and driving more left-leaning voters to the polls. He predicted that unless these groups invest similar amounts in Brown’s campaign, Ohio will "return to its reliable red state results."

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In 2022, Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan ran a well-executed campaign for the Senate seat vacated by Republican Rob Portman, only to lose by over six points to Republican venture capitalist and author JD Vance, who had Trump's backing. However, Ryan did not receive the same level of financial support from national Democrats that Brown is currently receiving. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pledged at least $10 million to re-elect him and Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.

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David Niven, an associate professor of political science at the University of Cincinnati, believes that Brown has a chance of retaining his seat if he can effectively communicate his stance on abortion to voters. Brown has been proactive in contrasting his position on abortion with those of his Republican opponents: Bernie Moreno, Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and state Sen. Matt Dolan. "I have always been clear about where I stand: I support abortion access for all women," he wrote in a text to voters. "I know where my opponents stand, too: All three would overturn the will of Ohioans by voting for a national abortion ban."

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The future of Ohio's abortion law could be determined in three closely watched Ohio Supreme Court races. Democrats are defending two sitting justices and hoping to flip a third open seat to gain control of the seven-member court.

Niven's takeaway from 2023? "If the Democrats could make elections strictly about issues, they would win," he said.

This theory finds support in Ohio's suburbs, which could once again prove crucial. In 2018, Brown lost three suburban counties where the abortion rights issue won last November. In two other counties where Issue 1 lost narrowly, the abortion question outperformed Brown's 2018 percentage by double digits. All five of these counties voted for Trump in 2020.

Ken Wentworth, a 53-year-old moderate Republican from Delaware County, expressed uncertainty about the future. He voted for marijuana legalization last year but abstained on the abortion issue. He remains undecided in the Senate race and is dissatisfied with his choices for president.

Christopher McKnight Nichols, an Ohio State University professor of history, believes that the roughly 57% support received by both Ohio ballot issues in November "shows just how weak many of those conservative issues are with actual Republican voters." He anticipates a "reconfiguration" within the state GOP.

Alex Triantafilou, Chair of the Ohio Republican Party, warned against overconfidence within the party, given its longstanding success in the state. "I think anybody who ignores the results of 2023 does so at their own peril," he said. "So, I’m not an overconfident Republican. I do think we’re going to do well. I do believe (if he's the nominee) President Trump will do well in Ohio. But I think we have our work cut out for us."