Biden's State Of The Union: Why The Democrats' Celebration Is Premature

The praise from these quarters was predictable, given that Biden managed to complete the address without any major mishaps. A few of the more sycophantic media responses included claims that those who had previously doubted Biden's capabilities were now looking foolish, and assertions that Biden had completely outmaneuvered the Republicans.

One commentator, @morningmika, took to Twitter to state, "Joe Biden owned the Republicans in every way... It was an incredible night for the President and I don't know if the Republicans understood just how negative they looked."

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March 10, 2024

However, to many observers, Biden came across more as an irate elderly man, railing against the world. His demeanor was particularly noticeable when he appeared to threaten the Supreme Court, a move that has been largely overlooked due to the numerous other contentious points in his speech.

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A video clip of Biden's address shows him saying, "With all due respect, Justices, Women are not without electrical power! Excuse me, electoral or political power. You're about to realize just how much you're..." The reaction from those present was far from positive.

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Despite this, Democrats have been pointing to a CNN poll that indicates a majority of viewers responded positively to the State of the Union address. However, what these Democrats and media outlets are failing to mention is the context of these results.

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The Washington Post, surprisingly, has highlighted the issue with the Democrats' argument. While CNN's poll shows that 65 percent of viewers had a positive response to the speech, and there was a 17-point shift in those who thought the country was heading in the right direction, these figures are skewed. The viewership of State of the Union addresses is typically heavily weighted towards supporters of the President, in this case, Democrats. Therefore, these figures are not a reliable indicator of the general American public's opinion.

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Furthermore, the 17-point shift towards the country moving in the “right direction” is not unusual. Historically, viewers have shifted an average of 15 points towards a more optimistic view following State of the Union addresses dating back to Bill Clinton’s 1998 speech.

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For historical context, President Trump's 2017 and 2018 speeches received stronger reviews than Biden's recent address, even with a similar audience demographic. In 2017, Trump received 78 percent positive reviews, with 57 percent being “very” positive. In 2018, he received 70 percent positive reviews, with 48 percent being “very” positive.

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Moreover, viewers' opinion of Biden continues to decline. His most recent State of the Union address received his worst reviews yet, with 65 percent positive and 35 percent negative reactions.

Therefore, it seems premature for Democrats to be celebrating. Biden's speech appears to have been an attempt to reassure his base and dissuade them from seeking a replacement. However, if they are under the illusion that a rejuvenated Biden is on the horizon, they may be setting themselves up for disappointment. There is only so much that can be done to bolster Biden's image, and it is unlikely to be a sustainable strategy in the long term.

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In their attempts to convince their base to stick with Biden, Democrats may have inadvertently set themselves up for failure. If they have managed to persuade enough of their base to keep Biden, they may have sealed their own fate.