Manchin, a moderate Democrat and former governor, had won his 2012 re-election with over 60% of the vote, but his margin of victory had significantly decreased to just three points in 2018. With West Virginia shifting dramatically to the right over the past decade, it was widely believed that Manchin was the only Democrat who could secure a victory in the state. Former President Donald Trump had carried West Virginia by nearly 40 points in the 2020 election, further highlighting the uphill battle for Democrats.
The implications of Manchin's decision are significant for Senate Democrats, who currently hold a slim 51-49 majority. The 2024 Senate map favors Republicans, with Democrats defending 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs. Among these seats are three in red states that Trump carried in 2020: West Virginia, Montana, and Ohio. Additionally, five other seats held by Democrats are in key swing states narrowly won by President Biden in 2020: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
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Despite the challenges, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee remains optimistic about their chances of protecting and strengthening their Senate majority. David Bergstein, a spokesman for the committee, stated, "Democrats have multiple pathways to protect and strengthen our Senate majority and are in a strong position to achieve this goal." Bergstein also pointed to the expansion of the battleground map to include traditionally conservative states like Texas and Florida, where incumbent Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Rick Scott are seeking re-election.
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While the 2024 Senate elections present numerous opportunities for both parties, there are five seats that are particularly likely to flip. With Manchin not seeking re-election, Republicans are confident about their chances in West Virginia. National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Senator Steve Daines expressed optimism, saying, "We like our odds in West Virginia." The Republican Senate primary in the state is already heating up, with popular Democrat-turned-Republican Governor Jim Justice receiving support from the NRSC and Trump. Justice has raised more money than his main rival, conservative Representative Alex Mooney, who enjoys the backing of the fiscally-conservative Club for Growth. On the Democratic side, 32-year-old Zachary Shrewsbury, a native West Virginian and Marine Corps veteran, has entered the race.
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In Montana, Democratic Senator Jon Tester's decision to seek re-election was met with relief by his party. Tester, who won re-election in 2018 in a state that Trump carried by 16 points, has already raised a formidable $15 million in fundraising this year. On the Republican side, Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and Purple Heart recipient, has launched a Senate bid. Sheehy, the CEO of Bridger Aerospace, enjoys the backing of the NRSC. Representative Matt Rosendale, who narrowly lost to Tester in the 2018 Senate election, is also considering a bid.
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Ohio, once a premier general election battleground, has shifted red in recent years. Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, the only member of his party to win a non-judicial, statewide election in Ohio in the past decade, faces a tough re-election campaign. Trump carried Ohio by eight points in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Brown, known for championing populist causes, has already raised $3.6 million in contributions this year. On the Republican side, State Senator Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno, who both ran unsuccessfully for the 2022 GOP Senate nomination, are already in the race. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose has also launched a Senate campaign.
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The Senate race in Arizona is expected to be highly complicated, with Democratic-turned-independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema potentially gearing up for a re-election campaign. Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego has already announced his candidacy and has raised more money than Sinema. However, Sinema enjoys a healthy cash-on-hand advantage. On the Republican side, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb and former GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake are among the contenders.
Pennsylvania, a perennial general election battleground, is expected to host one of the most competitive and expensive Senate races in 2024. Democratic Senator Bob Casey, seeking a fourth six-year term, is not expected to face any serious primary challenge. Republicans have united behind Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, West Point graduate, Gulf War combat veteran, and Treasury Department official in former President George W. Bush's administration. McCormick, who was endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP, is seen as a high-profile candidate with the ability to finance his own race.
The 2024 Senate elections will undoubtedly shape the balance of power in Congress. With Democrats defending a slim majority and Republicans eyeing favorable Senate maps, the stakes are high for both parties. As the campaigns unfold, candidates will vie for support and funding, while voters will ultimately decide the fate of the Senate.
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