Is Senator Joe Manchin About To COMPLETELY Shake Up The Political Landscape?

This speculation has been triggered by his recent announcement that he will not be seeking re-election to the Senate. Instead, he plans to embark on a nationwide tour to gauge interest in a movement aimed at unifying Americans and mobilizing the political center.

The 76-year-old moderate Democrat's ambiguous rhetoric and his previous refusal to dismiss the possibility of running for a higher office have sparked widespread speculation. However, when The Post sought clarification on Friday, the senator's team remained tight-lipped about his future plans.

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John Thomas, a GOP strategist, believes that Manchin is testing the waters to see if there is any appetite for his candidacy. Thomas suggested that Manchin's decision to step down from his Senate seat was largely driven by the prospect of losing to the popular Republican Governor, Jim Justice, in the upcoming elections.

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"He had no choice but to resign unless he wanted to march to his own death," Thomas said. "So that's one thing that animates that decision. Then the second is, while he's being forced out, you know, every senator would like to be president if they could."

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November 11, 2023

The likelihood of Manchin challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination seems slim, given that the deadline to register for the primary ballot in the early states of Nevada, New Hampshire, and South Carolina has already passed. However, Manchin, who has consistently advocated for putting the country before party, may have a better chance of launching an independent bid.

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Republican strategist Dave Wilson believes that if Manchin senses enough support, he might throw his hat in the ring, potentially disrupting the current political landscape. "If he can feel that there's enough traction for him," the senator may toss his name in "if only to shake things up," Wilson told The Post. He added that Manchin "could definitely start pulling votes away from both" Republican and Democratic candidates.

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Manchin's long-standing relationship with the centrist group No Labels, which is seeking to field a third-party candidate against Biden and the likely Republican nominee Donald Trump, has further fueled speculation about his potential presidential bid.

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"All they're asking for is, 'Do the citizens of the United States want some other options?'" Manchin said of No Labels in August. In July, he co-headlined a No Labels event with former Republican Utah Governor Jon Huntsman in New Hampshire.

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No Labels plans to announce its candidate in April and is working to get that person on the ballot in all 50 states. If Manchin runs as an independent, particularly with the backing of No Labels, he "would probably get enough votes to cause a lot of mischief," according to Democratic strategist Brad Bannon.

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Bannon believes that Manchin could significantly influence the presidential race, especially if it is closely contested. If he has the backing of No Labels, their financial support, and their ballot access, Manchin is more likely to have a national impact as an independent than Robert Kennedy Jr., Bannon added.

The increasing number of independent candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, is already causing headaches for the national parties. More non-affiliated candidates would only add to the electoral chaos.

"This really is going to end up skewing the electoral math for both sides, because you could have a fairly long ballot of truly viable candidates on Election Day," Wilson said.

Thomas argued that the growing list of independent candidates presents another challenge for Biden. "A large independent list is 'an echo chamber of ‘Anybody but the incumbent,' as though there's a problem with the incumbent," he said. "I think this scenario is Biden's biggest problem. He needs everybody to get in lockstep and unite around one thing, which is not-Trump."