Sinema, who distanced herself from the Democratic Party late last year, has yet to formally announce her candidacy for the 2024 election. However, her team has been exploring strategies for a potential independent run.
Sinema declared her "independence from the broken partisan system in Washington" last year, but continues to caucus with the Democrats, thereby contributing to their majority in the Senate. Her term is set to end on January 3, 2025.
The strategy for Sinema's potential independent run, as suggested by her political team, involves attracting a significant portion of Democrats, a majority of independents, and a substantial number of Republicans. This strategy was outlined in a roadmap to victory obtained by NBC News in September.
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"If the parties nominate extremists, as expected, Kyrsten will win a majority of IND, at least a third of REP and a percentage of DEM voters — making her the first Independent to win a three-way statewide race in American history," the document stated.
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The Republican field currently includes prominent figures such as former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. Lamb, a Trump ally and sheriff since 2017, has positioned himself as a bulwark against the "woke left" and a staunch supporter of law enforcement and border security, as reported by the New York Times.
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Lake, on the other hand, is undergoing a rebranding effort to appeal to moderates and some Biden supporters. She has been identified by The Hill as the most likely GOP nominee for Sinema's seat.
A recent survey from the Republican firm National Research Inc. placed Lake ahead of both Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego and Sinema in a hypothetical three-way contest. However, a poll from the Democrat-leaning firm Public Policy Polling suggested that in a match-up against Gallego, Lake would receive 43% of the vote, with Gallego garnering 48%.
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Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and other Democrats are expected to support Gallego, but there are concerns about the potential impact of a contentious challenge on their slim majority. Despite her independent status, Sinema's support in the Senate remains crucial for the Democrats.
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"If Sinema clears the signature threshold to qualify for the ballot, then Democrats are "gonna have to make calculated decisions on how that's going to impact any legislation or deals they're gonna have to negotiate with," said Matt Grodsky, former communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party, in an interview with The Hill.
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While Democrats' current concerns seem to revolve more around losing Sinema's vote in the Senate than losing votes to her, Fred Solop, a former Northern Arizona University political science professor, warned against underestimating her potential appeal to voters from both parties.
As he pointed out to US News, Sinema has yet to announce her bid for re-election and has not begun to spend any money on the race.
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