What's Next For GOP's Electoral Advantage After This Is SHOT Down By Florida Judge?

Leon County Circuit Judge J. Lee Marsh ruled on Saturday that the map diluted the voting power of black residents in northern Florida, which violated the state Constitution's Fair Districts Amendment. This amendment prohibits lawmakers from redrawing districts in a way that diminishes minority voting power.

Florida officials have until Monday to file an appeal, but the governor's office has not yet commented on the ruling. Governor DeSantis had strongly supported the map, which would have created approximately four more districts in favor of the GOP compared to the previous arrangement, as part of the redistricting process that follows the census every ten years.

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In theory, Governor DeSantis could take the fight over the map to the Supreme Court of Florida, where he has appointed five out of seven justices. However, it remains to be seen whether he will pursue this course of action.

The disputed district in question is District 5, which had a significant number of black voters. Governor DeSantis argued that keeping District 5 in a similar form to the old map would constitute an unconstitutional racial gerrymander. However, Judge Marsh rejected this argument in his ruling.

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September 04, 2023

Marsh, who was appointed by Governor DeSantis' predecessor, now-Senator Rick Scott, stated in his ruling, "The Secretary can point to no case finding the non-diminishment language of the Fair Districts Amendment, nor the comparable Section 5 language of the Voting Rights Act, to violate the Equal Protection provision of the 14th Amendment."

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During a special legislative session last year, the Republican-controlled Florida legislature sent Governor DeSantis a new map that was more in line with his preferences and estimated to give the GOP a 20-8 advantage. Following the 2022 midterm elections, Florida's congressional delegation now consists of 20 Republicans and eight Democrats, with the GOP holding 71% of the state's congressional seats. In comparison, former President Donald Trump won 51% of the vote in Florida during the 2020 election.

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Under the previous map, the state's delegation was composed of 16 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Florida gained an additional seat due to the census.

Nationally, Republicans were generally considered the slight winners in the 2022 redistricting battle, which served as a prelude to the upcoming midterms. However, Democrats have started to make some headway in their legal efforts to regain some of those losses.

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In June, the US Supreme Court struck down a GOP-backed map in Alabama due to concerns about voting rights laws. The court also lifted a hold on a case in Louisiana, ordering the drawing of a second predominantly black congressional district. Both of these cases are expected to face strong opposition from Republicans.

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In New York, Democrats have been in court seeking another opportunity to draw the state's congressional map after the courts intervened and drew one that resulted in a three-seat gain for Republicans.

There are also ongoing redistricting disputes in Ohio and North Carolina, with the latter occurring as the GOP has gained a favorable composition in the state's high court.

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In all of these redistricting battles, both parties have vowed to fiercely fight for apportionment advantages leading up to the 2024 elections. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, with 222 seats compared to Democrats' 212.