In the new 7th Congressional District, late November polling by the GOP firm Cygnal found Biden’s approval at an appalling 40%, with 56% not satisfied by his job as President. In the same survey, Republicans led the generic ballot, measuring which party voters would prefer to reign in Congress, by a whopping 10 percentage points, 51% to 41%. That could spell trouble for second-term Rep. Elissa Slotkin in 2022.
The incumbent Democrat is running for reelection in the district, recently configured and extending from suburban Detroit to the western outskirts of Lansing that Biden would have won by 1 point over then-President Donald Trump in 2020. Her image rates 39% favorable and 37% unfavorable overall but is slightly negative among crucial Independent voters.
“Democratic incumbent Elissa Slotkin is well known, but not well-liked in the district,” Cygnal pollsters Brock McCleary and Tiffany Beverly wrote in the polling memorandum, prepared for Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy of California.
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“Slotkin is politically polarizing as Democratic voters are uniform in their support of her,” the memo added. “Republicans are uniform in their opposition and Independents are split. Leaving Slotkin with little room for growth in the new district.”
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The district, passed by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission and rated R+4, was lured to give Republicans a slight advantage. But the seat is competitive. In 2016, it would have swung for Trump by 4 points; four years prior, it would have voted for President Barack Obama by 3 points.
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Slotkin, a top Republican target in the midterm elections, is challenging. In 2018, the congresswoman booted an incumbent Republican in the current 8th Congressional District, a red seat. She won reelection two years later with 51% of the vote, beating her Republican challenger by 4 points, even as Trump obtained 49.6% and won the district by nearly 1 point.
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On Tuesday, Slotkin announced she raised just under $1 million in October, November, and December, closing 2021 with more than $4.5 million in cash on hand. State Sen. Tom Barrett, her main GOP challenger at the outset of the election year, raised more than $310,000 after entering the race midway through the fourth quarter.
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"Barrett isn’t your grandfather’s Republican," said Elena Kuhn, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "He’s a Right-wing extremist more interested in his political career than supporting workers and families in mid-Michigan."
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