Black Friday, usually the busiest in-store shopping day of the year, is expected to be different this year compared to 2020, when many consumers, trying to evade COVID-19, did the bulk of their holiday shopping online — from the safety of their homes.
This year, many families have built up substantial savings and are anxious to participate in holiday traditions that were hallmarks of the season before the pandemic, including gathering to stores the day after Thanksgiving to score deals on gifts and more.
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"There is a yearning to get back to a feeling of normal, so in-store shopping is one way to accomplish that," said Bryan Cannon, the CEO and chief portfolio strategist at Cannon Advisers, who tracks consumer spending and holiday shopping trends.
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However, some consumers could find the experience troubling as retailers fight with supply-chain distresses and staffing difficulties. For November, out-of-stock messages online are up 261% compared to two seasons ago, according to the Adobe Digital Economy Index.
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Widespread shipping delays have led many customers to exploit deals before Black Friday to guarantee they get their hands on the season's most in-demand goods.
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About 70% of shoppers reviewed by consulting firm Deloitte said they had already started their holiday shopping by the last week of October. Eighty percent of early shoppers' budgets is expected to be spent by the end of the Thanksgiving period.
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"As supply-chain challenges continue to snowball, holiday shoppers have quickly realized that a turtle dove in the hand is worth two in the bush," said Stephen Rogers, executive director of Deloitte Insights Consumer Industry Center. "While spending during the Thanksgiving period will be on the rise, overall participation will be down slightly. Many shoppers have already got their wish-list items and taken advantage of retailers' "rolling Black Friday" offers. That said, early holiday shoppers are still set to spend more over Thanksgiving, showing a merry occasion for both in-store and online retailers."
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Last year's preference for online shopping has given way to consumers' intentions to shop both online and offline. Boston Consulting Group projects that more consumers will return to stores on Black Friday this year, with 48% saying they favor a hybrid shopping experience.
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Another feature of this year's shopping season that could discourage shoppers are costlier prices on goods. Toys, clothing, appliances and electronics are expected to cost between 5% and 15% more on average, according to Aurelien Duthoit, the senior sector advisor at Allianz Research. TVs will see the highest price spikes on average, up 17% from a year ago, according to the research firm.
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