The Republican Main Street Partnership last month surveyed 600 registered voters across six battleground House districts in the South, Midwest, and Northeast. The data showed exceptionally strong care for “conservative populist policy” reminiscent of the Trump administration’s legislative agenda. At the same time, these Republicans and independents showed opposition to congressional candidates who run as “uncompromising insurgents” intent on shaking up Washington rather than “uphold the institutions of government.”
“Competitive swing districts across the country are the key to Republicans winning back the majority in 2022,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership. “Voters want good, commonsense, conservative policies, without the noise and rhetoric.” The group stated earlier this year that it intends to invest $25 million in swing House districts to assist the GOP to recapture Congress and stop the advance of conservative provocateurs loyal to Trump.
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In its latest poll, 26% of respondents showed a favorable view of President Joe Biden, who is offering a series of liberal programs and trillions in government spending. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California fared worse, recording a 14% favorability rating. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York clocked in at 17%.
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House Republicans are only a handful of seats shy of the majority, with their attempt to restore strength in the 2022 midterm elections bolstered by decades of reapportionment and history. In every midterm election since 1982, except two, the party that holds the White House has lost seats in Congress. Redistricting will change district boundaries, possibly affecting the politics of the House seats polled by the Republican Main Street Partnership.
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The data is still beneficial, although the margin of error, plus or minus 6.3 percentage points, is on the high side. The survey, first shared with the Washington Examiner Tuesday, was conveyed April 13–22 online and through text to the web. Results were weighted by age, education, ethnicity, gender, and geography.
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Democrats have gained in suburban districts since Trump’s triumph in 2016, and the seats the group examined could give a window into the campaign messaging most likely to be useful for Republican candidates in competitive House contests next year. Those surveyed involved Georgia’s 6th Congressional District and Kansas’s 3rd, both held by Democrats; and four held by Republicans: Missouri’s 2nd and 3rd, North Carolina’s 9th, and Pennsylvania’s 1st.
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