Numbers Don't LIE: Is Biden's Campaign DOOMED At This Point?

By Jennifer Wentworth | Wednesday, 12 June 2024 09:30 AM
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In a recent development that could spell trouble for the Democratic party, renowned FiveThirtyEight pollster Nate Silver has raised a concerning question.

This comes in the wake of a significant blow to President Joe Biden's re-election campaign, as reported by Gateway Pundit.

President Biden's approval ratings have plummeted to an all-time low, with the FiveThirtyEight's average of national polls indicating a meager 37.6 percent. This alarming statistic led Silver to pose a thought-provoking question. He wrote, "... Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet?" He further added, "I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask."

Silver also highlighted that if current trends persist, former President Donald Trump, the likely Republican nominee, could outperform the incumbent Democrat by a significant seven points. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump's current approval rating stands at 41.6 percent.

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A report from NPR on May 30 suggested that one of Biden's key advantages in the 2020 election, the support of young voters, seems to be dwindling. Citing 2020 exit polls, the outlet reported that Biden won voters aged 18-29 by over 20 points and those under 45 by 14 points. However, these once substantial leads have been nearly obliterated as of May. Biden's 14-point lead with voters under 45 years old has been reduced to a mere four points. Among Gen-Z and Millennials, Biden's lead is only six points.

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The introduction of independent and third-party candidates further complicates the equation. With independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein in the fray, Trump leads the Gen-Z/Millennial vote by six points and those under 45 by eight points.

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The Libertarian party has since nominated its candidate, Chase Oliver. Oliver, a pro-LGBT candidate who gained popularity for defending drag queen story hour, plans to target "young voters angry about the Israel-Hamas war on college campuses, Twitch and TikTok," as per Politico. If these strategies succeed in diverting more young votes from Democrats than Republicans, Trump's lead among young voters could potentially widen by election day.

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