An Associated Press-NORC poll published this week saw Biden’s overall job approval has dropped to 39%, the lowest rating of his presidency. That number was 45% last month. And just 2 in 10 respondents consider the economy to be heading in the right direction, another bottom. Pessimism, more generally, is on the rise, driven by Democrats. Over three-quarters disagree with the nation’s direction, up from 70% in April.
With limited time and money before the 2022 midterm elections, Biden and Democrats will need to invest more heavily in their base rather than swaying independents, according to Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos.
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“The calculation, it appears, is that Democrats who may lose swing voters 60%-40% or 65%-35% can be more than offset by [additional] core supporters, where the numbers break at 85%-15% or 80%-20%,” he explained to the Washington Examiner.
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Biden’s and Democrats’ microtargeting of voters and their plans to motivate those people to cast a ballot depends on internal polls. Paleologos did predict, though, that Black women, the party’s most loyal demographic, would be pivotal to any success.
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“Generating an above-average turnout among certain populations makes a bigger difference in a midterm than it does in a presidential election when most people are already voting,” he stated.
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Marist College Institute for Public Opinion Director Lee Miringoff distinguished Biden’s and his Democratic colleagues’ polling.
“Biden is running behind the Democratic congressional candidates,” he stated. “That translates into, if Biden’s numbers are low, maybe some Democrats can still save their seats if they can be more independent of him.”
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For Miringoff, Democrats have an organizing edge over Republicans at the moment due to the Supreme Court’s draft ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.
“The Republicans, at this point, would like to make it a referendum on President Biden,” he stated. “The Democrats want to make it a referendum on things that the Republicans stand for regarding abortion, gun control, and other issues.”
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Miringoff’s conclusions have not discouraged Biden from trying to help Democrats this midterm cycle.
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Biden’s “ultra-MEGA” campaign rhetoric, a reference to former President Donald Trump’s 2016 slogan, can be compared to the incumbent’s “unity agenda.” That policy platform debuted just three months ago during his first State of the Union address.
Since then, Biden has begun weaving the adjective “ultra-MAGA” into his public comments. His aides, including new White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, have dropped it into their written announcements.
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