While Democratic strategists have claimed that abortion policy will play a major part in the election and top lawmakers in the party have been vocal in their calls for voters to rally against Republicans in November over the matter, the poll, prepared for the America First Policy Institute by RMG Research Group and obtained by the Washington Examiner on Monday, found that “issues such as inflation, immigration, crime, the war in Ukraine” are expected to have more of an impact in urging people to the ballot box.
The survey discovered that there is some uncertainty with voters over what overturning Roe would do, with 41% announcing they believed it would completely outlaw abortion, 36% stating they weren’t certain what it would mean, and 22% have “some understanding” of what overturning the choice would indicate.
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“If the Supreme Court overturns Roe, the conventional wisdom assumes that the issue will help Democrats in the midterms; the only question is by how much. A deeper look at the data, however, suggests the conventional wisdom is wrong,” the polling memo declares.
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“The conventional wisdom is based on years of polling, showing that a solid majority of voters oppose overturning that 1973 ruling. My own polling shows the same results. However, any poll asking whether voters want to overturn Roe is meaningless. Seventy-seven percent of voters don’t know what overturning that decision would mean. "If people don’t understand what overturning Roe would mean, how can you possibly interpret polling data showing that people don’t want it overturned?” it goes on.
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As election season begins to heat up, the discoveries reveal that Republicans now have a 10-point advantage over Democrats — with the parties polling at 53% to 43%, respectively — among individuals who stated they would “definitely vote” next fall. The survey further discovered that “while modest,” the matter of abortion could give the GOP an edge in swing seats, adding that its discoveries indicate that “most voters will be okay with overturning Roe.”
“With Roe in place, the abortion laws are set by judges. Sixty-five percent of voters think abortion laws should be established by voters and their elected representatives. That’s exactly what will happen if Roe is overturned. Just [18%] prefer the status quo,” the memo goes on, stating that those in support of banning most abortions were more likely to vote in November.
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“Among those who believe that abortion should be illegal except in cases of rape, incest, or when the life of the mother is at risk, 47% are Very Enthusiastic about voting in the midterms. Among those who believe abortion should be legal at any time, just 35% are that enthusiastic,” it reads.
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