Heading into 2022, Democrats discover themselves on their back foot, guarding their narrow House and Senate majorities — and President Biden — against a fusillade of attacks over extremely high coronavirus cases, inflation, the bloody Afghanistan departure, and more.
Biden's approval ratings have declined to the low 40s, indicating possible drumming at the ballot box next year — and they haven't stopped declining.
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The House is viewed by many on both sides of the aisle as possible to fall into Republican hands, given Democrats' razor-thin five-seat majority there. Although, despite a favorable map for Democrats, the party's 50-50 majority in that chamber could be toppled too.
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"I've been telling Democrats, especially Democrats in targeted seats, to enjoy the holidays, and you have a decision to make: retire or lose next fall," Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, told The Hill.
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Emmer warned that a GOP House majority is not guaranteed, though he asserted that as many as 70 Democrats could lose their seats in a possible wave, warning "in this environment, no Democrat is safe."
Fueling the GOP optimism is a confluence of historical and current factors.
The party in the White House customarily loses seats in the midterms. GOP waves helped flip the House toward Republicans in 2010 and the Senate four years later, while a blue wave helped win Democrats back the lower chamber in 2018.
On top of that, Biden's falling approval ratings have been coupled with lower approval by voters of his handling of some specific problems, including the coronavirus and the economy. That's helped fuel a GOP advantage in the generic congressional poll, where, in part due to gerrymandering, Democrats typically need a slight edge to at least pull even.
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Taken together, Republicans see a path to taking back at least the House, particularly given its narrow margins. Recent waves have flipped dozens of seats, and the GOP has to net only five in 2022.
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"I'm very confident that we're gonna take back the House," announced Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), who represents a suburban swing district near Omaha. "I think that on the key issues right now, all the energy is on our side. And when I look at all the polling data, it matches what I see in the district. Voters are concerned about inflation, crime, the border, Afghanistan, and all those issues are in our favor."
Beyond the irritation with the nation's current state, along with specific frustrations on policy matters, Democrats face structural headwinds in a redistricting year.
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