Forty-eight percent of voters in the survey said they would support Trump, compared with 45 percent for Biden. Another 8 percent were uncertain.
The results were evenly split at 46 percent among women, while men supported Trump by a margin of 50 percent to 43 percent. Biden prevailed in urban voters by 20 percentage points and suburban voters by 4 percentage points, but Trump won among rural voters by 33 percentage points.
The survey comes as Biden plays defense on several issues, including inflation, persistently high rates of coronavirus infections, and the messy departure from Afghanistan.
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Democrats have tried to beat back on criticism by stressing increasing job growth and an intense vaccination push while claiming Republicans are downplaying the call for Americans to get vaccinated.
Should Trump bid the election, he would likely skate to the 2024 GOP nomination, according to the poll.
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Trump holds a massive lead over any other potential GOP inherent nominee. Sixty-seven percent of Republican voters would back the former President, with former Vice President Mike Pence coming in second with 9 percent and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis coming in third with 8 percent.
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The poll is largely in line with other surveys that have suggested Trump is a shoo-in for the Republican nomination if he makes a third White House bid in 2024.
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“The collapse of Biden has led to a surge for President Trump on all fronts both in the GOP primary and in a potential general election,” said pollster Mark Penn.
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Biden overcame Trump by about 7 million votes in 2020, or about 4 percentage points. He won largely because of narrow victories in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all of which Trump had taken in 2016.
The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey of 1,989 registered voters was carried from Nov. 30 through Dec. 2. It is a collaboration of the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and the Harris Poll.
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The survey is an online example taken from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.
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Most Democrats are concerned that Biden’s shameful polling numbers — with an approval hanging in the low 40s — will lead to a thrashing at the ballot box. With historical headwinds and a GOP-dominated redistricting process already working against them, they fear that unless Biden pulls out of his current slide, Congress will be handed to the Republicans in next year's midterms.