That is the review of Republican strategists working in the tracks of this year’s midterm election campaigns. Look no further than Georgia, where Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is expected to overcome former Sen. David Perdue in Tuesday’s primary. Trump wiped Perdue to question Kemp because he blamed the governor for his loss in Georgia in 2020, claiming the state, and victory overall, were stolen from him. Republican voters have stuck with Kemp.
“The economy continues to poll as the top issue for Conservatives because they feel inflation and high gas prices in their wallets,” said a GOP strategist in Georgia. “Election integrity has an expiration date — and it’s expired.”
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The Georgia governor’s prominent, not-so-secret sauce, say Republicans watching the Kemp-Perdue primary, is that the incumbent focused on voters’ top priorities and ran a campaign about the future. The challenger prosecuted a campaign about the past and suffered. In this example, say relieved GOP insiders, the party was deemed harmless because Trump’s continuous complaints about 2020 were dealt with in the confines of a primary.
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Republican investigators worry the party might not be so lucky in November if nominees in competitive general election contests repeat Trump’s “stolen election” complaints and sideline the kitchen table issues that voters care about most. This has appeared as an immediate concern in Pennsylvania, where Trump-endorsed gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano, a state senator, has made the former President’s baseless election fraud claims a rallying cry of his own.
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“This [approach] is especially counterproductive in races where we are challenging incumbents or looking to flip Democratic-held governor or attorney general seats,” said a Republican strategist based in a Midwestern battleground state.
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In this context, what contests are Republicans worried about — depending on who emerges as their nominee? Gubernatorial races in Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Still, Republicans are largely optimistic about 2022. Biden is the reason.
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The President’s job approval ratings are so dismal— 41.3%, on average — and frustration with his leadership on key issues so extensive that Republicans are convinced any political hurdles otherwise precipitated by Trump’s promotion of 2020 conspiracies will be overshadowed. What other criteria have GOP strategists convinced voters are poised to sweep Democrats from power in the House and Senate this year?
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The generic ballot favors Republicans 45.5% to 43.4%. Meanwhile, Biden’s job approval is even worse on key issues. For example, the President’s rating on the economy, by far the most important issue to voters, is an abysmal 38%, according to a recent Associated Press/NORC poll.
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