Biden's Crucial Crossroads: Gaza Cease-Fire Negotiations Reach Critical Juncture

By Maria Angelino | Thursday, 02 May 2024 09:30 AM
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Image Credit : The Guardian

President Joe Biden is urgently seeking a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, a critical move that could impact his reelection prospects.

A proposed six-week pause in hostilities could see Israeli hostages return home, a halt to the assault on Rafah, and much-needed aid delivered to Gaza. This could potentially expedite talks on a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia and quell anti-Israel protests on college campuses, which pose a political risk for Biden.

However, if negotiations fail, the situation could worsen. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may proceed with a Rafah invasion, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis and hindering progress towards Saudi-Israeli ties. This could also incite demonstrators to escalate their tactics and disrupt Biden’s renomination at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

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White House spokesman John Kirby emphasized the necessity of a deal, stating, “there just has to be.” The conflict has significantly impacted Biden’s bid for a second term, with his handling of the situation drawing criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. A recent CNN poll revealed that 71% of respondents disapprove of his approach, including more than eight in 10 adults under 35, a demographic Biden needs to secure victory against Republican Donald Trump in November.

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This week could be pivotal for both the conflict and Biden. With negotiators in Cairo considering the Israeli offer, the sides are closer to a deal than they have been since a week-long pause in November. The White House is working urgently to ensure an agreement is reached. Netanyahu has stated that Israel would invade Rafah with or without a deal.

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Biden has been in contact with Netanyahu, as well as the leaders of Egypt and Qatar, who are assisting in mediating talks. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, appearing in Riyadh, urged Hamas to accept the agreement. The administration, along with 17 other countries, has pressed Hamas to release hostages immediately. The US and its allies have also cautioned the International Criminal Court against issuing arrest warrants for Israeli officials, which could jeopardize negotiations.

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If negotiations fail, Aaron David Miller, a former State Department Arab-Israeli negotiator, warned of the implications for US efforts to change the situation in Gaza. He stated, “you’d have to hang a kind of closed-for-the-season sign” on these efforts.

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Meanwhile, escalating protests on college campuses have exposed divisions among Democrats. These tensions were evident when New York City police officers removed pro-Palestinian demonstrators who had occupied a building at Columbia University. If these protests persist, they could fracture the Democratic Party at a time when Biden needs unity.

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Republicans have seized on the protests, using them to depict a nation in chaos under Biden’s leadership. House Speaker Mike Johnson called for the resignation of the university president during a press conference at Columbia last week, targeting suburban parents who are crucial to the November election outcome.

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On Tuesday, Johnson announced a US House-led crackdown on antisemitism spreading on college campuses, including an expansion of investigations of university administrators. Former President Donald Trump also weighed in, criticizing Biden for allowing the erosion of bipartisan support for Israel.

White House spokesman Andrew Bates condemned the occupation of buildings and the use of hate speech and symbols, stating they have “no place in America.”

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