A survey published Monday by the National Association for Business Economics shows that its members assume the economy to grow 5.6% this year – down distinctly from their previous estimate of 6.5%. The respondents projected the economy will grow by 3.5% in 2022.
"NABE Outlook survey panelists have moderated their expectations about the prospects for economic growth in 2021 since May," said David Altig, president-elect of the NABE and the director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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The economists are frequently becoming more pessimistic about the growth outlook: More than half of respondents – 58% – said perils to the economy are skewed to the downside, compared to just 15% in May. Only 16% of respondents said the risks to the outlook are skewed to the upside, down strikingly from 56% in May.
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Pandemic-related concerns proceed to manage the list of potential risks: Nearly two-thirds of the economists said they saw the emergence of vaccine-resistant variants of COVID-19 as the most significant threat, while 9% identified slowing vaccine uptake.
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Another 9% said they were worried about the possibility of a "large fiscal program" as Democrats craft a huge $3.5 trillion spending bill, while 5% of respondents said the greatest downside opportunity is financial policy inaction or gridlock.
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On the flip side, about 44% of respondents identified a faster vaccine rollout as the biggest upside risk to the economy, followed by an infrastructure spending package (14%) and stronger global growth (12%).
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Other specialists have also discredited their forecasts as the U.S. dealt with a wave of COVID-19 cases, driven largely by the spread of the highly contagious delta variant. The OECD on Tuesday forecast that U.S. GDP would grow 6% in 2021. That's down nearly 1 percentage point from May when the Paris-based organization foretold GDP would rise 6.9% this year.
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While the U.S. was making solid progress with vaccinations — 76.5% of adults have received at least one shot, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — and infections began falling, cases rebounded over the summer.
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The U.S. is averaging about 140,000 new COVID-19 cases per day with roughly 1,000 deaths, according to CDC data.
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Although breakthrough infections in vaccinated people happen, they tend to be far less serious.
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FedEx's labor shortage is having dire consequences along the company's supply chain.
A lack of truck drivers, package handlers and other workers are resulting in longer delivery times and higher costs for American companies who are then raising prices on U.S. consumers.
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Constrained labor markets are causing "widespread inefficiencies in our operations," said FedEx Chief Operating Officer Rajesh Subramaniam, who saw worker shortages had a $450 million influence on the company’s quarterly results.
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