Republicans have the advantage heading into 2022, according to political commentator Costas Panagopoulos. Democrats govern the House with an eight-seat margin and simply command the Senate because of Vice President Kamala Harris's tie-breaking vote.
"White House worries about a red wave in 2022 are certainly justified, but the truth is Republicans don't need much given Democrats' razor-thin majorities in both chambers of Congress," Panagopoulos, Northeastern University's politics chair, explained to the Washington Examiner. "A red ripple may be all the GOP needs to tip the partisan balance in its favor in 2022."
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According to former politician consultant Christopher Hahn, history is not good to the White House and congressional Democrats. In fact, the president's party has dropped an average of 27 seats in the midterm election cycle since World War II.
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"The pendulum almost always swings away from the party in power, so of course, the White House and Democrats from coast to coast should be concerned about 2022," he stated.
Democrats were especially vulnerable to economic forces out of their control, Hahn explained. Though the Aggressive Progressive podcast host maintained inflation was "transitory," a White House message, mentioning low unemployment and interest rates, as well as increasing wages and a high stock market.
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"11 months is an eternity in politics, so buckle up," he continued.
Regardless of history, polling implies the nation is "discontent" and Republican-dominated statehouses are favorably redrawing congressional districts after last year's decennial census and a strong down-ballot 2020 campaign season, according to Barry Burden, the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Elections Research Center director.
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"The public generally has an unfavorable attitude toward all political leaders and both major parties, but it is more consequential for the Democrats because they control the presidency and both chambers of Congress," he stated.
Democrats may hold their own in their Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada Senate races and flip Republicans' North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin seats, according to Burden, because the chamber is "more idiosyncratic."
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"But the best Democrats can do in the House and state races is to minimize their losses," he stated. "Promoting the popular elements in the infrastructure bill and emphasizing its bipartisan nature could help reduce the sting for Democrats next year."
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A majority of the public disapproves of the job Biden is doing as president, according to RealClearPolitics's polling average. Most voters complain about Biden's handling of the economy, foreign policy, and immigration problems after record inflation and migrant surges, as well as his botched withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. And a plurality, 49%, disapprove of his COVID-19 response, his No. 1 campaign platform.
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