House Democrats had expected an increase in seats, with a gain of just five seats or so making a "bad" night and a gain of 10 to 15 making a “good” night.
But so far, across the board, House Democrats have consistently failed to flip seats held by vulnerable Republicans, and repeatedly fell in districts Democrats flipped from red to blue in 2018. They could also stand to lose seats in New York, Michigan, and California.
They appear to have lost seats they picked up in Iowa, New Mexico, Florida, and Oklahoma in 2018, while also losing a seat held by House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson, D-Minn., to Republican Michelle Fischbach.
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They had expected to push out Reps. Steve Chabot, R-Ohio, and Ann Wagner, R-Mo., as well as pick up the seats held by retiring Reps. Susan Brooks, R-Ind., and Pete Olson, R-Texas. But so far, barely any races have broken in the Democrats’ path.
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Rather than expanding on their 16-17 seat advantage in the House, it appears Democrats will actually see that margin decline.
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Democrats came into the election with a 16-17 seat advantage -- depending on how that margin is determined. But Republicans appear to have sliced deeply into that margin.
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This means that, at best for Democrats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds a small bulk. That could produce echoes of 2016 as some Democrats questioned Pelosi’s leadership and delayed leadership elections.
It also means the House Democratic Caucus will be more liberal as the party lost seats held by moderates like Peterson and Rep. Kendra Horn, D-Okla. The fact that Democrats failed to expand their majority means there could be recriminations for Pelosi and other Democratic leaders.
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Democrats have largely focused their campaigns on protecting the Affordable Care Act and stepping up efforts to combat the coronavirus. Republicans have mostly focused on the economy and preventing a Democratic-led Senate that could pursue progressive legislation in a potential Biden presidency.
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In terms of legislation and deals, such a narrow majority means Pelosi now can not hold out for a large coronavirus package, as she had been stirring for pre-election. She will now handle pressure from moderates on both sides to make a smaller deal, and soon.
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The House also has to fund the government in December by coming to an understanding with the Senate, where Republicans could keep control of that chamber next year.