According to the Gateway Pundit, the Council on Criminal Justice, a self-described nonpartisan think tank, estimates that homicides fell by 21 percent from 2024 to 2025, President Donald Trump’s first year back in office. The group based its findings on data from major U.S. cities and projected that the national homicide rate could fall to roughly 4.0 per 100,000 residents once the FBI releases full nationwide figures later this year.
“When nationwide data for jurisdictions of all sizes is reported by the FBI later this year, there is a strong possibility that homicides in 2025 will drop to about 4.0 per 100,000 residents. That would be the lowest rate ever recorded in law enforcement or public health data going back to 1900, and would mark the largest single-year percentage drop in the homicide rate on record,” the organization said. The New York Times reported, “The analysis of data from 40 cities, by the Council on Criminal Justice… found across-the-board decreases in crime last year compared to 2019: 25 percent fewer homicides, 13 percent fewer shootings and 29 percent fewer carjackings.”
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“The Federal Bureau of Investigation has not yet released nationwide crime data for all of 2025, but statistics published by cities and collected by independent researchers are already telling the latest chapter of a remarkable story. In just half a decade, cities have gone from upswings in murder and mayhem the likes of which some had not seen in 25 years to declines themselves worthy of headlines,” The New York Times added. The paper acknowledged the origins of the crime wave: “The spikes began in 2020 with the shock of the global pandemic and, just a few months later, sweeping protests over police killings, both of which strained the capacity of law enforcement.”
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The Council on Criminal Justice noted that crime had already begun to ease in 2024, before Trump returned to the White House, though the pace of decline has accelerated markedly since. That context undercuts progressive narratives that blamed crime solely on economic conditions or policing levels, and it highlights how policy direction and political leadership can either fuel or restrain lawlessness.
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The Trump White House, for its part, is framing the numbers as proof that a central campaign promise is being kept: “Make America Safe Again.” In a statement, the administration declared, “This monumental turnaround is a direct result of President Trump’s unwavering commitment to Make America Safe Again. In addition to the historic drop in murders last year, the nation experienced steep declines in rapes, robberies, aggravated assaults, shooting deaths (fewest since 2015), on-duty law enforcement officer deaths (80-year low), traffic fatalities, and overdose deaths,” the White House said.
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The president’s team drew a sharp contrast with the previous era of progressive governance in many major cities. “President Trump is reversing the chaos and carnage unleashed by Radical Left Democrats who turned our streets into war zones by coddling criminals and opening our borders. Since taking office, President Trump has deployed a whole-of-government offensive in Democrat-run cities, driving down crime, ridding the streets of savage criminal illegal aliens, backing law enforcement, and bringing back order where incompetent Democrat politicians surrendered to anarchy and despair,” Trump’s team added.
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Even The New York Times conceded that most cities are now safer than they were before the pandemic. “Of the 35 cities whose homicide rates were in the analysis, all but eight had a lower murder rate in 2025 than before the pandemic. Those whose murder rates were still the most elevated included Milwaukee, at 42 percent higher; Austin, at 36 percent higher; and Minneapolis, at 30 percent higher.”
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Minneapolis, one of the epicenters of the 2020 anti-police movement and “defund” rhetoric, has become a focal point for the Department of Homeland Security’s efforts to remove criminal illegal aliens. Those enforcement actions have faced stiff opposition from Minnesota’s Democratic leadership, including Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who have resisted tougher immigration and public-safety measures even as their city’s homicide rate remains elevated.
Public sentiment appears to be catching up with the improving statistics. A Gallup survey conducted in October found that Americans are feeling safer, with less than half of respondents, 49 percent, saying crime was an “extremely” or “very” serious problem in the United States, down from 63 percent last year.
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Gallup reported that concern about crime is now at its lowest level since at least 2018, during Trump’s first term, underscoring how a renewed emphasis on law and order, border security, and support for police can shift both reality and perception.
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As the FBI prepares to release official nationwide data, the emerging picture suggests that conservative policies prioritizing enforcement and accountability are delivering results where progressive experiments in leniency and de-policing so visibly failed.
