John Cornyn in a high-stakes Senate primary that is rapidly becoming a referendum on the party’s direction.
According to RedState, Paxton is not the only challenger in the race; Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas’s 38th Congressional District has also entered the contest, though current polling places him in a distant third as Cornyn seeks a sixth term in the U.S. Senate.
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The dynamics suggest that, barring a late surprise, the primary will effectively boil down to a two-man clash between Paxton, a favorite of the grassroots right, and Cornyn, a pillar of the GOP establishment whose tenure has often drawn criticism from conservatives for his willingness to cut deals with Democrats.
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With early voting set to begin next month, Paxton has launched his opening salvo in the form of a sharply produced, AI-generated campaign ad that targets Cornyn’s bipartisan posture as a liability rather than a virtue. The video zeroes in on Cornyn’s apparent rapport with Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas’s 30th District, who is herself running in the Democratic Senate primary, and features Paxton’s pointed claim that, “Publicly, they're opponents. Privately, they're in perfect step.”
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The ad opens with footage of Crockett praising Cornyn for “actually being very helpful to me,” a sound bite that Paxton’s team uses as the springboard for a visual metaphor of political intimacy. AI-generated likenesses of Cornyn and Crockett are then shown dancing in lockstep, a stylized depiction that invites viewers to see Cornyn as “dancing with the devil” by aligning too closely with a progressive Democrat whose policy agenda is far removed from Texas’s conservative base.
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Legacy media coverage has already begun to cast the spot as an attack on bipartisanship rather than a substantive critique of Cornyn’s record. One summary notes that, “The ad centers on past remarks by U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett praising Cornyn’s bipartisan cooperation, a theme Paxton’s campaign is using to frame the incumbent senator’s record as increasingly aligned with cross-party dealmaking,” and further observes that, “The release comes as Cornyn’s Republican challengers have publicly criticized him for declining to participate in debates.”
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Paxton’s campaign amplified that message on social media with a blunt caption that leaves little doubt about his strategy of tying Cornyn to the Democratic left. “NEW AD: John Cornyn has been dancing the night way with liberal lunatics like Jasmine Crockett and selling us out every step of the way. That’s why he called Crockett his ‘dance partner’ and she said Cornyn was her ‘best partner’ in the Senate,” the post declares, underscoring the attorney general’s effort to portray Cornyn as out of step with conservative voters.
The timing of the ad is no accident, coming as Cornyn faces mounting pressure from his Republican rivals to stand on a debate stage and defend his record before primary ballots are cast. “The ad’s release coincides with renewed scrutiny from Cornyn’s GOP opponents over his decision not to engage in debates with Republican challengers,” one account notes, adding that Cornyn has already turned down multiple invitations, including a candidate forum backed by the Dallas and Tarrant County Republican Parties and a slate of influential conservative organizations such as Dallas County Young Republicans, Park Cities Republican Women, and American Jewish Conservatives.
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Both Paxton and Hunt have publicly urged Cornyn to participate in debates, arguing that GOP voters deserve a direct comparison of the candidates’ visions for the state and the country. That pressure may be having an effect, as fresh polling from Emerson College — highlighted by RedState — shows Paxton edging ahead of Cornyn by a single point in the primary, with Hunt trailing and a sizable 29 percent of likely voters still undecided, leaving ample room for the race to shift.
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The same survey suggests a complicated electability argument that Cornyn’s allies are likely to seize upon in the coming weeks. In hypothetical general-election matchups against Democratic contenders Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, Paxton is essentially tied with both Democrats, while Cornyn holds a lead of three or more percentage points, a finding that establishment Republicans will cite as evidence that the incumbent remains the safer bet in November.
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President Donald Trump, whose endorsement has reshaped countless GOP primaries, reportedly has no plans to back any candidate in this particular contest, depriving Paxton of what might have been a decisive boost. Cornyn, however, is hardly without institutional support, as the powerful Senate Leadership Fund has already poured “tens of millions” of dollars into his defense, with “a lot more” expected, signaling that national Republican leadership is determined to keep a reliable ally in the Senate.
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Texas voters will render their verdict soon enough, with the primary scheduled for March 3 and early voting beginning February 17, leaving a narrow window for Paxton to convert grassroots energy into a decisive breakaway. Whether conservatives opt to reward Cornyn’s seniority and perceived general-election strength or instead rally behind Paxton’s insurgent challenge and hard-edged critique of bipartisan compromise will reveal much about the future direction of the Republican Party in one of its most important strongholds.
