This surge is reflected in the latest data, which indicates a significant uptick in the Small Business Optimism Index, a key economic indicator managed by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB).
According to the Daily Caller, the NFIB's Small Business Optimism Index witnessed an 8-point spike in November, reaching its highest level since June 2021. Concurrently, the NFIB's Uncertainty Index, which gauges economic concerns on main street, saw a substantial 12-point drop. Alfredo Ortiz, CEO of Job Creators’ Network Foundation (JCNF), attributes this surge in optimism to the recent election results. "The big factor leading to the jump in optimism [in November] was Trump’s victory," Ortiz stated. "Small business owners are excited for a true breath of fresh air after four years of policies that restricted small business growth.”
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The JCNF's November Small Business Intelligence Quotient (SBIQ) poll further substantiates this sentiment. The poll revealed that small businesses favored Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris by a 17-point margin, with a majority of owners expressing optimism about the incoming administration's potential to bolster small businesses.
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Ortiz further elaborated on the expectations of small businesses, stating, “Small businesses are anticipating that a Republican-controlled government will be able to secure the border, balance the budget and make the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) permanent.” The TCJA, enacted by Trump in 2017, provides small business owners with the ability to deduct up to 20% of their qualified business income (QBI). This provision, among others, is set to expire in 2025, but Trump and his Republican colleagues are keen on preserving the legislation.
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The optimism of small business owners stands in stark contrast to the economic challenges they faced under the Biden administration. A JCNF poll from May revealed that nearly half of small business owners identified inflation as their primary concern. This concern was exacerbated by a significant surge in inflation under the Biden administration, with overall prices increasing by more than 20%.
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The impact of these economic conditions was felt acutely by small businesses, particularly those with fewer than 10 employees. Between August 2023 and August 2024, these businesses cut more than 43,000 jobs, while approximately 1.7 million more Americans were compelled to take on part-time employment, as reported by House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith.
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Elaine Parker, President of the JCNF, echoed the optimism of small business owners in a statement accompanying the JCNF's November poll results. “The small business community is obviously excited about what the incoming Trump administration could mean for the economy,” she stated. “It will be a breath of fresh air following four years of policies that have thrown cold water on small business hiring and expansion.” This sentiment underscores the hope that the incoming administration will usher in a period of economic growth and stability, particularly for small businesses.
