Trump’s First Crisis: Why Syria’s Latest Shake-Up Could Be A Nightmare For The U.S.

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By Victor Smiroff | Saturday, 14 December 2024 05:15 AM
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Image Credit : Washington Institute

The incoming Trump-Vance administration is set to face a significant foreign policy challenge as a new faction topples Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year regime, potentially igniting another protracted conflict in Syria.

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The al-Assad dictatorship met its end on Saturday when rebels led by the Islamic group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized Syria’s capital, Damascus. This development marks the end of a bloody conflict that has been ongoing since 2011. However, the potential for clashes among other rebel factions, coupled with Israeli, Russian, and U.S. operations in the country, creates a volatile situation that could erupt at any moment.

According to the Daily Caller, Brent Sadler, senior research fellow for the Allison Center for National Security at the Heritage Foundation, commented on the complexity of the situation. “It’s a wickedly complex situation that definitely has a lot of U.S. interest,” Sadler said. “I think that’s the first thing to acknowledge upfront is [that] it doesn’t necessarily mean we have to be more militarily engaged than we are already, but at the same time signaling readiness to reward those that share our interests and values, and to punish those who don’t. It’s the early days, quite frankly, to know exactly how the power situation is going to play out in Syria.”

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The U.S. designated HTS as a foreign terrorist organization in 2018 under the Trump administration. The group was formed in 2017 when the former leader of al-Qaeda’s Syrian branch, Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, split from the organization over strategic differences. Al-Jawlani, who was detained by U.S. forces during the invasion of Iraq and released in 2011, has reportedly expressed a moderate position on minorities like Christians remaining in their country. However, his ultimate intentions remain a source of concern for some.

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Sadler further explained al-Jawlani's ideological shift, stating, “At some point back in 2018 to 2019, al-Jawlani makes a break from the ideology of ISIS and certainly al-Qaeda, because I think he realized there is no way to unify the Syrian people to topple Assad’s regime without moderating their very radical Salafist ideology. They’re still Islamist, but I think they’re trying to moderate themselves for very pragmatic reasons.”

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Other influential factions in Syria include the U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Defense Force (SDF) and the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). The SNA, formed in 2017 from various rebel groups in northern Syria, initially opposed the Assad regime and HTS. However, they joined the most recent offensive alongside HTS after the group took the city of Aleppo. The SNA is also currently engaged in combat with the SDF following Assad’s collapse.

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Amid the uncertainty brought about by HTS’ rise to power, President-elect Trump expressed his desire for the U.S. to remain uninvolved in Syria, stating there was not much to gain for the U.S. in direct involvement at this time. Simone Ledeen, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East, echoed this sentiment, stating, “What the Trump administration needs to think about is, ‘where in this does U.S. interest lie? How do we influence what’s happening there to our advantage?'”

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The U.S. currently operates the al-Tanf military base in southern Syria, which has served as the headquarters for operations against ISIS since 2016. Despite President Assad’s opposition, the U.S. continued to operate the base during his rule. Currently, the U.S. has 900 troops stationed in Syria. Trump, who campaigned on ending “forever wars,” attempted to withdraw troops from Syria in 2018 but faced significant pushback from foreign policy hawks of both parties. As a result, some U.S. troops remain in the country, primarily for anti-ISIS operations.

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Israel has capitalized on the power vacuum, seizing strategically vital areas in the Golan Heights region in southern Syria. These newly seized positions put Damascus within Israeli artillery range. The U.S. also conducted strikes on Sunday with Israel against ISIS targets.

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In Damascus, the rebels appointed Mohamed al-Bashir, a former HTS opposition government member, as interim prime minister to solidify unity in the rebel front. John Hardie, Russia program deputy director at the FDD, emphasized the need for the Trump administration to stay involved enough to work with whoever ends up maintaining power in the region.

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While Russia’s influence suffered a significant blow from the fall of Assad, the incoming Trump administration will still have to deal with their remaining pockets of influence while trying to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Russia’s main chance at influencing the region is through the Alawites living on Syria’s western coast, where Tartous Naval Base, Russia’s only port on the Mediterranean Sea, is located.

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However, with Assad out of the picture, the best hope for Russia to regain its influence in the region lies in cooperating with the rebels. “The Kremlin is certainly trying to now play nice with these groups, especially HTS,” Hardie said. “You may have seen that just a few days ago, they were calling them terrorists, and [Russian Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov was sort of chiding journalists for calling them ‘opposition’ rather than ‘terrorists,’ and saying they should never be allowed to. Now they’re saying they will engage with all parties, and the Russian state is calling them ‘armed opposition.'”

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Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that he will back a Syrian government that respects minorities, condemns terrorism, bars the use of chemical and biological weapons, and supports humanitarian assistance. “We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to diminishing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and to protecting Americans here at home,” Trump-Vance Transition Spokesman Brian Hughes said.

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