2025 Presidential Election: The Potential Impact Of A Kamala Harris Defeat

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By Greg Moriarty | Monday, 04 November 2024 05:15 AM
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The familiar rhythm of late fall in America is upon us once again, marked by the changing leaves, the World Series, Halloween, and the New York City Marathon.

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And then, in the blink of an eye, Election Day arrives. The race for the presidency is currently so close that it's impossible to predict with certainty who will emerge victorious. Yet, in a few short days, we will likely know the answer. Following this, we will observe Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas, New Year’s, and finally, Inauguration Day.

On January 20, 2025, the next President of the United States will take office. Will we see the return of former President Donald Trump to the West Wing, or will we welcome President Kamala Harris as the 47th president?

According to Fox News, Harris, in her brief race to the White House, has accomplished many impressive feats. She has energized the Democratic Party with a burst of summer joy, held court over thousands of citizens in packed rallies around the country, and looked both confident and glamorous at the debate against Trump. Her fundraising efforts have grandly outpaced Trump’s own, with over a billion dollars raised in support. Millions of Americans are expected to enthusiastically cast their ballots for the vice president.

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If Harris wins, there would be celebration in the blue streets, excitement about the historic first female American president, and hope that Harris would bring to the Oval Office a refreshing mix of energy, leadership, unity, and smart new ideas. However, there would also be concerns about her habit of creating toxic workplaces for notoriously discontented staffers, her long-running failure to stem the influx of migrants at the southern border, her largely unpopular stance on transgender issues, and the uncertainty still surrounding many of her key positions.

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Meanwhile, Trump voters would experience a range of emotions, from disappointment and anger to stoicism and resignation. Some might blame a blatantly biased press, electoral mischief, or Trump derangement syndrome, while others might blame the candidate himself for being too chaotic, too volatile, too rhetorically undisciplined, or too past his prime. However, most red voters would continue with their lives, proudly wearing their MAGA hats and buying Trump buttons and other vintage merchandise to pass down to their grandchildren. They would continue to vote Republican and keep a close eye on the likely party majority in the Senate, along with JD Vance, Nikki Haley, and any MAGA candidates Trump chooses to support.

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However, if Harris loses the election and Trump returns to the White House, there would be a seismic, convulsive uproar of angst and censure within the Democratic Party that would resonate from coast to coast. The first person to be placed in the dunking machine would not be Kamala Harris, but President Joe Biden. He would be blamed for staying in the race too long, for running for president back in 2020 when it was clear to some that his mental acuity was already in decline, and for blocking other viable Democrats from running, curbing the growth and potential of his party’s future leadership.

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Harris would also face blame for taking that summer burst of joy and hope and mangling it with word salads and a refusal to answer basic questions or properly prepare for and perform at important interviews. She would be criticized for not clarifying her most fundamental policy positions, for not sending sufficient signals to the center of the electorate that she understands where her party has gone too far, and for maintaining an unusually light schedule for a young, hale candidate unfettered by funding issues or a pandemic.

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The liberal agenda would also face blame for wandering off the smooth, paved road of enlightenment and tangling itself in the brambles of extreme, almost irrational, thought. Some Democratic voters, astonished and bewildered, say they no longer recognize the party they grew up with, while many loyal donors are on full alert that their funds would someday be responsible for allowing young children to unwittingly have their genders reassigned or the Middle East to be fully controlled by terrorist groups.

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In addition to blame, there would be a profound reckoning about how the Democratic Party lost its mainstream appeal. Once it offered a home to a wide spectrum of voters while embracing classic American tenets such as tolerance, free speech, patriotism, and a global helping hand. Now it is fragmented and disordered, plagued by infighting, resentment, and second-guessing. And, of course, as much as Democrats are loath to admit it, Trump has taken advantage of their move to the far left to take more of the ground in the political center than they could have ever imagined.

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In the past, when faced with setbacks, the Democratic Party has found ways to right itself, correct course, and learn from its mistakes. Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were able to synthesize the critiques, move the party back into a zone of health, and inspire confidence from leaders and civilians on both sides of the aisle after a White House loss. Clinton, in particular, made an effort to appeal to all Americans after a string of presidential campaign losses, taking stances both bold and nuanced on policies such as right to work, welfare reform, the death penalty, and free trade.

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However, in 2024, the Democrats are in far deeper denial about their party’s identity than they have been in the modern era. How far left it has gone, how unstable and unreliable many perceive it to be, and how and why Trump has dominated American politics for a decade and counting.

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If Kamala Harris wins, she would step into the role as president for all Americans, a responsibility she undoubtedly is qualified to undertake. The Democratic Party, then, would have some breathing space to figure out how to create its own comprehensive appeal, and determine a viable path for the future of the brand.

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But if Harris loses, Democrats in Washington and around the country would have an enormous task: they would have to find a way to salvage the party and come to terms with its fractured identity and significant disillusionment from its base, all while dealing with fallout from the election, preparing for political combat against Donald Trump, and managing a collective mental health crisis from its disillusioned cohorts.

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And if Harris loses, this would be the Democrats’ biggest problem: there would be zero consensus in the party about what went wrong – and thus zero consensus about what the proper solutions should be, and, therefore, zero consensus about which leaders should be empowered to bring the party back to power. All we do know is that, under those circumstances, it almost certainly won’t be Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.

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