This new arrangement would maintain Ukraine's role in the transport route while eliminating Russia as the supplier.
As reported by Newsweek, Hungarian and Slovakian firms are in the process of negotiating a commercial agreement with Azerbaijan. This new deal aims to ensure the continuity of natural gas transit across the continent once the existing agreement between Russia and Ukraine comes to an end. This development comes as Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to foster close ties with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The proposed deal, which would replace the Russian gas supply, could effectively put a stop to Russia's fuel exports to Europe.
Both Fico and Orbán have demonstrated their support for Putin in the past. Fico has repeatedly stated that Ukraine cannot triumph in its conflict with Russia, while Orbán attempted to obstruct European funding intended for aid to Ukraine earlier this year. Amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has been exploring alternative gas sources. The current transit deal is set to expire at the end of the year, and negotiations with Azerbaijan to replace Russia as the new supplier have been ongoing for several months.
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The proposed contract, which involves 12-14 billion cubic meters of gas per year from Azerbaijan, would utilize the same route that currently transports Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe. However, Bloomberg reported that the contract would need to incorporate a "swap-agreement" clause between Moscow and Azerbaijan, as the latter lacks sufficient export capacity to meet the existing supply.
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Contrary to previous reports suggesting that the deal was nearing completion, the Slovak state-owned buyer SPP has clarified that this is not the case. The company stated to Reuters, "We regularly discuss the topic with our partners, but the information about the upcoming conclusion of a gas supply contract with the participation of SPP is not true."
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Despite the ongoing war and discussions of a new deal, Russia has reportedly expressed its willingness to continue supplying Europe with gas and transporting it through Ukraine. However, Kyiv has declined to participate in negotiations with Moscow. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov commented on the potential deal, stating, "How events will continue to unfold, how supplies will continue to be ensured, taking into account the fact that Ukraine has already announced its refusal to extend this agreement, now I can't say anything."
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Despite the conflict, Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary are among the European nations that have continued to import gas from Russia. The Council of the European Union reported a significant drop in the share of Russian gas imports to the European Union, from 40 percent in 2021 to just eight percent last year. Furthermore, the European Council reported that Russian exports accounted for less than 15 percent of European gas imports, including pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas.
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The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies has revealed that revenues from Russia's oil and gas industry contribute to 20 percent of the GDP annually and between 30 to 50 percent of the total federal budget revenues over the past decade. This underscores the significant role that energy exports play in Russia's economy, and the potential impact of any changes to these arrangements.
