The process of vote reporting varies from state to state, which can result in fluctuating leads for candidates on election night and in the days following. For instance, states that initially report votes from urban and suburban areas may seem to lean Democratic early on, only to shift towards the Republican side as rural areas begin to report.
In a similar vein, states that first report in-person votes may initially appear to favor the Republican candidate. However, as mail-in ballots start to be counted, the overall Republican lead can shrink or even turn into a Democratic lead. This phenomenon, known as the "red mirage," was observed in several battleground states during the last presidential election. As reported by Fox News, the process of counting often takes longer in densely populated states.
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Fox News will project a race's outcome when the data indicates a clear winner, and there is no conceivable scenario where the trailing candidate could surpass the leader. This guide to ballot counting in the seven battleground states is based on the Associated Press's reporting of the process in each state and aligns with Fox News’ analysis of previous returns.
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This year's election could see different returns. It is anticipated that fewer Americans will vote before election day, and there appears to be less division between Democrats and Republicans on how they cast their ballots. Moreover, some states have altered their ballot counting processes since 2020. However, it is crucial to note that every state has measures in place to ensure votes are counted accurately and securely.
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Election officials routinely test ballot counting machines, track the location of ballots, and employ measures ranging from barcodes to watermarks to ensure that only eligible voters can vote. In Arizona, for instance, ballots cast and processed before Election Day are the first to be reported after polls close. These ballots have tended to favor Democrats since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election.
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Mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day take significantly longer to tabulate because election workers do not begin processing or verifying them until after polls close. In Maricopa County, which boasts the state’s largest population, approximately 20% of the nearly 1.6 million votes cast in 2022 were mail ballots dropped off on Election Day. In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less.
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In Georgia, county election officials are permitted to start tabulating mail ballots at 7 a.m. on Election Day. Consequently, the first votes reported on election night will include many of these mail ballots as well as early in-person votes. Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This suggests that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more votes are tabulated.
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There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. A new law gives local election officials more time to process and tabulate absentee mail ballots, which should help alleviate the logjam that slowed ballot counting in the 2020 presidential election.
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In Michigan, cities and towns with at least 5,000 people may begin processing and tabulating ballots up to eight days before Election Day, while smaller jurisdictions may begin the morning before Election Day. In 2020, more than 3.1 million voters cast their ballots by mail, about 56% of all ballots cast. State law at the time prevented election workers from opening the envelopes and preparing ballots for the count until the night before Election Day. Trump took an early lead in the vote count on election night, but that lead began to erode overnight and early Wednesday morning, and Biden took the lead later that afternoon.
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The law change may result in a speedier release of mail voting totals and may mitigate the so-called "red mirage" that Trump falsely claimed was evidence of voter fraud in Michigan and in a handful of other key states. Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or fewer. Candidates may request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin, and the state covers the cost if the recount changes the outcome.
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In Nevada, the state conducts its elections predominantly by mail. In 2021, the state adopted a law requiring mail-in ballots to be automatically sent to active voters, making permanent an emergency measure implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the midterm elections the following year, about 80% of voters cast their ballots in-person before Election Day or by mail.
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Mail ballots that are postmarked by Election Day will be counted if they are received by Nov. 9, four days after Election Day. With a large number of mail ballots potentially arriving after Election Day, the outcome of some highly competitive races might not be determined until these additional mail ballots are received and tabulated. State Republicans challenged this law, but a federal court dismissed the lawsuit in July. In recent elections, votes counted after Election Day have been heavily Democratic.
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Although most ballots are cast by mail, voters have the option of voting in-person at a polling place on Election Day. The state does not release any vote results until the final voter in line has cast a ballot, which could be well after the time polls formally close. Nevada does not have an automatic recount law, but candidates may request and pay for a recount within three days of the county or statewide canvass, regardless of the vote margin.
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North Carolina has a track record of counting votes relatively quickly, leaving only about 1% of the vote uncounted after election night. This year, the count could be slowed in some areas due to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene. State elections officials approved emergency measures in nearly 30 western counties and tribal areas, giving voters additional options for turning in their absentee ballots.
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State law allows county elections officials to begin tabulating mail ballots before the polls have closed on Election Day. As a result, the first votes reported on election night will include many of these mail ballots. Overall, these ballots have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This means that the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more votes are tabulated.
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There are no automatic recounts in North Carolina, but candidates may request and pay for one if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total votes or 10,000 votes for statewide races or 1% for non-statewide races.
In Pennsylvania, several factors contributed to a relatively slow vote counting process. Under Pennsylvania law, elections officials must wait until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day before they can begin to process ballots cast by mail and prepare them to be counted. The release of mail voting results cannot begin until after polls have closed. Because of the overall volume of mail ballots — they comprised almost a quarter of the total vote in the 2022 midterm elections — and the varying amounts of time it takes the state’s 67 counties to tally these votes, determining a winner in a highly competitive race could take several days, as it did in the 2020 presidential election.
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The first vote results reported after polls close are expected to come from mail ballots. Results from later in the night are expected to be a mix of mail votes and votes cast in person on Election Day. Once the vote counting stretches into the day after Election Day and beyond, the vote results are once again expected to come mostly from mail ballots.
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Overall, votes cast by mail have tended to favor Democrats, ever since the issue of early and mail voting became highly politicized during the 2020 election. This means the Democratic candidate in a competitive contest could take an early lead in the vote count in the initial vote reports after polls close, even though the race may tighten considerably as more votes are tabulated.
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In Pennsylvania, races with a vote margin of 0.5 percentage points or less are subject to an automatic recount.
In Wisconsin, the first vote results reported on election night tend to be a mix of ballots cast on Election Day and in advance. In the April presidential primaries, more than a third of counties reported most or all of their vote results in their first vote report of the night — including in-person Election Day votes as well as mail-in and early votes.
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But larger counties, including the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Dane, took much longer. Their first vote update of the night included only a small share of the total votes cast. In a close race, that likely means waiting for final results in both places to know who has won the state.
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Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but candidates may request and pay for one if the vote margin is less than a percentage point. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
As the nation braces for the upcoming election, it is clear that the process of vote counting is complex and varies greatly from state to state. However, the commitment to ensuring a fair and accurate count remains a shared goal across the board. As the election night unfolds, it is crucial to remember that fluctuating leads are a normal part of the process and do not necessarily indicate the final outcome. The democratic process, though complex, is designed to ensure that every eligible voter's voice is heard and counted accurately.
