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Patterson, who is frequently asked about the election outcome, bases his prediction on current polling metrics and historical track records.
Despite Kamala Harris leading by 2 points in the Real Clear Politics national average and 0.2% in battleground averages, Patterson remains confident in a Trump win.
Patterson cites Gallup's tracking of party identification in the United States, which has been ongoing for decades. He notes that in 1992, the country was more Democratic by party identification than before Ronald Reagan's era, with 52% registered Democrats and 40% Republicans. However, by 2004, the country achieved registration parity between the two parties, tied at 47%. Patterson points out that Democrats have never led Republicans on party ID in front of a presidential election by less than 3 points since 2004. As of September 2024, Republicans hold a three-point advantage over Democrats in party registration, a net 6-point shift in four years.
Patterson also highlights recent polling data from Arizona, where Donald Trump has a 5-point lead. He dismisses criticisms from the left about the poll's methodology, arguing that the poll's sample base is within the ballpark of where the state currently sits. He also notes that Republicans are picking up more new voters than Democrats in Pennsylvania, a key state in the election.
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Patterson further points out that since 2020, the Republican Party has increased their voter rolls by almost 400,000 people, while the Democratic Party has lost over three-and-a-half million. He suggests that the increase in independent voters, who have swelled by a significant 1.8 million, are up for grabs and will likely choose between two perceived bad options.
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Patterson also criticizes Kamala Harris's performance, stating that she is polling weaker than Biden with Blacks, Latinos, and white men, both educated and non-educated. He believes that if the election focuses on issues such as the economy, immigration, crime, foreign policy, and education, Trump will win by a larger margin than current polling indicates. However, if the election becomes a referendum on Trump, Harris could win, although Patterson sees this as an unlikely scenario.
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Patterson concludes by acknowledging the anxiety many feel about the election and polling, but expresses confidence in his prediction. He warns that if the data reverses over the next 40 days, his prediction may change. However, for now, he believes that the "iceberg" that the "HMS Kamala" is headed towards is unavoidable.
