In line with this agenda, the federal government, in partnership with mainstream media, has endeavored to downplay the substantial evidence supporting the fact that armed, law-abiding citizens serve as one of the most potent deterrents against public mass casualty incidents.
In 2022, a rare instance of national media coverage highlighted the actions of 22-year-old Elisjsha Dicken, who thwarted a mass public shooting using his legally concealed firearm. However, the Associated Press and the Washington Post both framed this event as an anomaly, with headlines such as "Rare in US for an active shooter to be stopped by bystander" and "Rampage in Indiana a rare instance of armed civilian ending mass shooting," respectively. According to The Federalist, the same year saw Time Magazine politicizing the tragic school shooting in Uvalde, contending that the controversial response from local law enforcement demonstrated that "good guys with guns keep failing to stop mass shootings."
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Simultaneously, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) under the Biden Administration has been accused of suppressing data that supports the crime prevention role of armed citizens. The CDC removed its estimates of defensive gun uses from its website, estimates that were based on a 2013 National Academies of Sciences report indicating that guns were used to prevent crime between 64,000 to 3 million times annually.
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This removal was instigated by gun control advocate Mark Bryant, founder of the Gun Violence Archive, who lobbied the CDC to eliminate what he termed "misinformation" regarding defensive gun use estimates. Bryant argued that these figures were being exploited by "gun rights folks" to obstruct gun control legislation. In response, the CDC removed these estimates, leaving no numbers in their place.
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The FBI, too, has demonstrated susceptibility to political influence. The bureau defines an active shooter attack as an event where an individual actively seeks to kill people in a populated, public area. This definition encompasses a broad range of scenarios, from a single person being targeted, even if the shot misses, to a mass public shooting. However, it excludes shootings related to other crimes, such as robbery or drug-related disputes.
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To compile its data, the FBI engaged researchers at Texas State University. Since police departments do not record these incidents, the researchers relied on Google searches to find news stories about these events. Consequently, the FBI's evidence is based on a dataset that is arguably biased against the truth.
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During my tenure as the senior advisor for research and statistics at the U.S. Department of Justice in 2020 and early 2021, I evaluated the FBI's active shooting reports. I found that the FBI either overlooked or misclassified numerous instances of civilians using guns to stop attacks. For example, the FBI continues to report that armed citizens stopped only 14 of the 350 active shooter cases identified between 2014 and 2023.
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Contrarily, the Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC), which I oversee, has identified many more overlooked cases. The CPRC's data paints a different picture: Out of 515 active shooter incidents from 2014 to 2023, armed citizens stopped 180, potentially saving countless lives. Our figures even exclude 27 cases where a law-abiding citizen with a gun halted an attacker before a shot could be fired.
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The CPRC estimates that law-abiding citizens with guns have stopped over 35 percent of active shootings in the past decade and 39.6 percent in the last five years. This estimate is eight times higher than the FBI's four percent figure. This percentage increases further when considering only areas where citizens are legally permitted to carry firearms. In such areas, we estimate that armed civilians stopped 51 percent of active shootings over the past decade and 53.1 percent over the last five years.
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One case overlooked by the FBI occurred in Conyers, Georgia in 1999, when an assistant principal disarmed an active shooter at Heritage High School. When I presented this case, among others, to the FBI, an official acknowledged that "the FBI did not come across this incident during its research in 2015, but it does meet the FBI’s active-shooter definition."
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When questioned about their omission of this and other instances, the bureau official cited the limited scope of their reports as the reason for these oversights. While it is understandable that researchers may occasionally miss or misidentify cases, the FBI's refusal to correct its errors and omissions is concerning. Despite the issues I highlighted, the corrections have yet to be made.
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The FBI's dataset appears to be missing so many defensive gun uses that it raises questions about the bureau's intent. The fact that they do not correct mistakes brought to their attention further compounds these concerns. Meanwhile, the news media continues to report the FBI's figures without question, distorting the truth about the crucial role responsible gun owners play in preventing crime and limiting casualties during mass public shootings.
