According to The Post Millennial, the Real Clear Polling (RCP) average as of August 31, 2024, shows Harris leading Trump by a mere 1.8 points nationally. The Electoral College, excluding toss-up states, leans towards Harris by a slim margin of two electoral votes. However, it's worth noting that Trump has historically outperformed his polling predictions. In 2016, despite Clinton's lead in the polls, Trump emerged victorious. Similarly, in 2020, Biden's victory over Trump was by a razor-thin margin in several swing states.
Historic RCP polling averages reveal that Clinton was leading Trump by 4.6 points nationally around this time in August 2016, more than twice Harris's current lead. In 2020, Biden was ahead of Trump by 6.3 points, over three times Harris's current national average lead.
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This historical data could spell trouble for Harris, especially considering the media's relatively lenient coverage of her compared to Trump since she assumed Biden's role as the Democratic nominee. The Democratic National Convention might have been her last opportunity to make a strong impression before facing Trump in the upcoming September debates.
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Harris's only sit-down interview as the 2024 Democratic candidate occurred earlier this week on CNN with Dana Bash. During the interview, Harris addressed her shifting positions on key issues such as border control and fracking. Despite these changes, she assured the American public that her core values remain the same as they were before she became vice president in the Biden-Harris administration. It's worth noting that GovTrack ranked Harris as the most left-wing Senator in 2019.
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As the race heats up, Harris will need to navigate the political landscape carefully. Her current polling numbers, coupled with Trump's history of outperforming his polls, suggest a challenging road ahead. The upcoming debates will be crucial in determining whether she can strengthen her position and secure a decisive lead.
