Fed Chair Powell Issues CRYPTIC Message On Future Rate Cuts

By Jennifer Wentworth | Saturday, 24 August 2024 10:15 PM
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Image Credit : Photo by Reuters

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled a potential shift in monetary policy, hinting at future interest rate cuts.

However, he refrained from offering specific details regarding the timing and magnitude of these adjustments.

According to CNBC, Powell, during his much-anticipated keynote speech at the Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, stated, "The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

The Federal Reserve Chair's remarks come at a time when markets are eagerly awaiting guidance on the future course of monetary policy. Powell's speech offered a retrospective analysis of the factors that led to inflation, which subsequently necessitated a series of 13 rate hikes from March 2022 through July 2023.

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However, Powell acknowledged the progress made in curbing inflation, asserting that the Federal Reserve can now shift its attention to the other aspect of its dual mandate - ensuring the economy remains close to full employment. "Inflation has declined significantly. The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic," Powell said. "Supply constraints have normalized. And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed."

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Powell pledged to do everything within his power to ensure the labor market remains robust and progress on inflation continues. His speech was well-received by the markets, with stocks gaining and Treasury yields falling sharply.

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The inflation rate has been gradually returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, though it has not yet reached that mark. The most recent measure of inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve showed the rate at 2.5%, down from 3.2% a year ago and significantly lower than its peak of over 7% in June 2022.

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Concurrently, the unemployment rate has been steadily rising, currently standing at 4.3%. This figure would typically signal a potential recession. However, Powell attributed this increase to more individuals entering the workforce and a slower pace of hiring, rather than a rise in layoffs or a general deterioration in the labor market.

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"Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market, avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored," he said. "While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome."

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Market analysts anticipate that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates in September, although Powell did not confirm this in his speech. Minutes from the July open market committee meeting, released Wednesday, noted that a "vast majority" of officials believe a September cut will be appropriate so long as there are no data surprises.

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Powell also took time to evaluate the causes of the inflation surge, which reached its highest level in over 40 years, as well as the Federal Reserve's policy response and why price pressures have eased without a recession.

When inflation began to rise in early 2021, Powell and his colleagues, along with many Wall Street economists, dismissed it as "transitory" and attributed it to Covid-related factors that would eventually subside.

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"The good ship Transitory was a crowded one," Powell joked, "with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board. I think I see some former shipmates out there today."

When it became evident that inflation was spreading from goods to services, the Federal Reserve pivoted and began hiking, ultimately adding 5.25 percentage points to its benchmark overnight rate that had been around zero following emergency cuts in the early pandemic days.

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Powell attributed the rise in inflation to "rapid increases in the demand for goods, strained supply chains, tight labor markets, and sharp hikes in commodity prices." He credited the Federal Reserve's actions and the public's confidence in the institution for the economy's ability to avoid a sharp downturn during the hiking cycle.

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"The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities, and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability," he said. "An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations, reinforced by vigorous central bank actions, can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack."

Powell concluded by acknowledging that there is still "much to be learned" from the experience, adding, "That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may differ."

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