Despite this, major pollsters continue to place Trump ahead in the betting odds.
According to Newsweek, polls conducted by SurveyUSA and Morning Consult between August 2 and 4 showed Harris leading Trump in the popular vote by three and four percent respectively. However, prominent bookmakers maintain that Trump still holds the upper hand due to the Electoral College system, the significant amount of money already wagered on him, and the steadfast belief of some gamblers in his potential comeback.
As of Wednesday morning, William Hill offered odds of 4/5 (55.6 percent) on Trump winning the November election, compared to 1/1 (50 percent) for Harris. William Hill spokesperson Lee Phelps stated, "Donald Trump remains a 4/5 favorite with William Hill to become the next U.S. president due to the weight of money we have taken on the Republican candidate."
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Phelps further explained that Trump has been a favorite to win the GOP nomination for the past four years and has been heavily backed throughout Biden's term. This support only increased over the past year when it became clear that Biden would not be able to defeat Trump a second time. "In contrast, Kamala Harris has only become a serious contender in the race to the White House in the last six months. The money placed on Harris pales in comparison to Trump," Phelps added.
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Despite this, Phelps anticipates that Harris could overtake Trump before the election, stating, "All data points toward Harris—currently priced at EVS [evens]—going favorite at some point before November, but the liability we have for Trump acts like an anchor on his price."
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Betfair, another leading bookmaker, is offering odds of 5/6 (54.5 percent) on a Trump presidential election victory versus 10/11 (52.4 percent) for Harris. A Betfair spokesperson attributed this to many gamblers banking on a Trump comeback, stating, "Harris is very close to her shortest-ever odds. While Harris is edging closer to Trump, punters are still betting that Trump can overcome whatever is thrown at him, as he has done countless times before."
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The spokesperson also pointed out that Trump's odds are bolstered by the possibility of him losing the popular vote but still winning the election due to the Electoral College system, as was the case against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
On Tuesday, Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her 2024 presidential running mate. Following the announcement, the pair attended a rally together in Philadelphia, where Walz humorously challenged Ohio Senator JD Vance, Trump's vice presidential pick, to a debate "if he's willing to get off the couch and show up."
However, a Marist College poll conducted between August 1 and 4 revealed that 71 percent of American registered voters either hadn't heard of Walz or didn't hold an opinion about him. This suggests that while Harris may be leading in the polls, the race for the White House is far from decided.
