However, it may be premature to celebrate this as a diplomatic victory. The critical question that needs to be addressed is why Russia's autocratic leader would consent to such a deal. What could possibly be the motivation for President Vladimir Putin?
According to The Hill, it is safe to rule out any notion of humanitarian concern. Putin's reputation is not one of a savior but rather a ruthless leader who eliminates political adversaries. His track record includes the extermination of Chechens, Georgians, Ukrainians, and Russians alike, essentially anyone who poses a threat to his imperial ambitions.
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The argument that Putin was eager to rescue Vadim Krasikov, a security service assassin serving a life sentence in Germany for murdering a Georgian man who had fought for Chechnya, or seven other incarcerated Russian spies, is not convincing. While their release may be beneficial, Putin is not known for his sentimentality. He does not mourn the capture of his agents, and it is highly improbable that these eight individuals will be rewarded with comfortable positions within his regime.
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With humanitarianism and sympathy dismissed as possible motivations, three plausible reasons remain. Firstly, Putin has once again demonstrated his absolute power. He has shown that he can arrest, detain, and kill without repercussions, but also that he can liberate with the same impunity. Essentially, Putin is the law, and his will prevails.
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This message was intended not only for Russians, who are already aware of it, but also for those in the West who still harbor the illusion that the conflict with Ukraine can be resolved without fully complying with Putin's conditions.
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Secondly, Putin has proven that detaining Westerners, including Americans, on fabricated espionage charges is an effective strategy. The West's willingness to negotiate with Russia's chief terrorist, as evidenced by the large-scale prisoner exchange, contradicts the common policy of refusing to negotiate with terrorists. This could potentially encourage Putin to continue imprisoning Westerners and demanding concessions, whether it be the release of Russian spies or policy changes.
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Lastly, the exchange allowed Putin to rid himself of two democratic activists, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin, who were imprisoned under horrific conditions. The death of Alexei Navalny in prison had the opposite effect of what Putin intended; instead of discouraging Russians, it inspired them, leading to tens of thousands attending Navalny's funeral. The death of Kara-Murza and Yashin could have had a similar impact. Expelling them, as the KGB did with dissident novelist Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn in 1974, is a more strategic move, assuming that as exiled activists, they will have little influence on events within Putin's domain.
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In essence, the current jubilation in the West may lead to a sobering reality check. Despite his military failures, Putin has managed to outmaneuver the West at the negotiation table. Those advocating for peace talks with Putin might need to reassess their ability to negotiate more effectively.
