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The new strategy, described as a "more competitive approach," is a response to Russia's potential development of a space-based nuclear weapon and the rapid expansion of China's nuclear arsenal, as reported by Dr. Vipin Narang, Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy.
As reported by Newsweek, Dr. Narang shared his concerns during a discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington D.C. He highlighted the growing nuclear capabilities of North Korea, which he described as "not YET a nuclear peer," but one that "continues to expand, diversify, and improve its nuclear, ballistic missile, and non-nuclear capabilities." He also noted a "growing DPRK-Russia strategic partnership."
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Dr. Narang warned that the United States may soon need to increase its deployed forces and, under certain circumstances, consider withdrawing from international treaties. He outlined the "three pillars" upon which the United States' new "competitive approach" would be based.
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Regarding Russia, Dr. Narang revealed, "We learned that Russia is developing a new satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon on orbit—an anti-satellite capability which, if detonated, could potentially wipe out an entire orbit of assets crucial not just to the United States, but the entire world." He emphasized the global implications of such a move, stating, "All of us should be concerned with the prospect of Russia putting a nuclear weapon in space, posing a threat to satellites operated by countries and companies around the globe, as well as to the vital communications, scientific, meteorological, agricultural, commercial, and national security services upon which we all depend."
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Turning his attention to China, Dr. Narang discussed the discovery of hundreds of new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile silos under construction in Western China in 2021, and the rapid expansion of its nuclear capabilities, which is predicted to leave China with more than 1,000 operational warheads by 2030. "This expansion is being fueled by Russia—literally," he said, "as Moscow supplies China with Highly Enriched Uranium reactor fuel, which supports the production of weapons-grade plutonium."
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Dr. Narang also warned against underestimating North Korea, particularly given its growing partnership with Russia, which he believes "illustrates the real possibility of collaboration and even collusion between our nuclear-armed adversaries."
The new approach, according to Dr. Narang, is based on three principles. The first is the establishment of "a modern nuclear deterrent" capable of deterring strategic attacks, assuring allies and partners, and meeting objectives if deterrence fails. The second pillar involves strengthening the network of allies and partners and enhancing extended deterrence efforts in NATO and the Indo-Pacific. The third pillar calls for increased investment in the next generation of talent and leaders to guide strategic thinking and shape future infrastructure and capabilities in this era of competition.
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Dr. Narang also hinted at the possibility of the U.S. abandoning the New START treaty, a nuclear arms reduction deal between the U.S. and Russia signed in 2010, if Russia does not adhere to its terms. He said, "We will also abide by the central limits of New START for the duration of the Treaty, as long as we assess that Russia continues to do so. But in an uncertain world, preserving the option to change course tomorrow requires that we make necessary decisions and investments today."
Dr. Narang emphasized that the U.S. would not proactively engage in nuclear competition, but would respond to the actions of Russia, China, and North Korea. He concluded, "Let me be clear: competition is not a foregone conclusion—if our adversaries make different choices, so will we. But so far, they have not, and show no interest in doing so. So, if our adversaries continue down their current paths, the United States – alongside our allies and partners – is ready, willing, and able to confront the challenges of a new nuclear age."
