Mass Migration: Could These "Blue Islands" Swing The 2024 Election For Biden?

By Tommy Wilson | Friday, 07 June 2024 05:15 AM
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The shifting demographics in the cities of Atlanta, Georgia; Las Vegas, Nevada; and Phoenix, Arizona, could potentially tip the scales in favor of Joe Biden in the upcoming presidential election, suggests a recent report.

This study, conducted by the relocation firm moveBuddha, indicates that these three pivotal swing states have been attracting new residents to their major cities, referred to as "blue islands."

According to moveBuddha, "Perhaps because of the sheer people-power of their blue islands, these three swing states have seen progressives make state-level inroads since 2012." The 2020 presidential election saw Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada narrowly favor Biden, with a margin of less than 0.5 percent in the first two states. These states are anticipated to play a significant role in determining whether the incumbent can withstand the challenge from the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump, in the November election.

In the report titled 'Can America's Moves Swing the 2024 Election?', moveBuddha's analysis reveals that approximately 30 million Americans have relocated states since the 2020 presidential election. The firm utilized data from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics to find that Nevada had the second-highest job growth rate in the United States between 2020 and 2024, at 10.1 percent. Arizona and Georgia also experienced substantial job growth, ranking fifth and ninth respectively.

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The study further analyzed U.S. Census Bureau data to determine that Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia were among the top 15 states for new building permits issued per capita in 2023. The influx of younger voters to these states' primary cities, according to moveBuddha, has disproportionately increased the Democratic vote in these "blue islands."

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The report states, "To grow, a blue island has to be large enough to support a diverse economy and accommodate new residents, like Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. All three are their swing state's biggest economic hubs. Phoenix alone boasts more than a million more people than the state's second-largest city, Tucson." The 2020 voting shifts in Arizona and Georgia were particularly significant, with these states having last voted for a Democratic presidential nominee in 1996 and 1992, respectively.

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MoveBuddha suggests that young voters are primarily relocating to Democratic-leaning cities in Republican states for employment opportunities. The report comments, "Ironically, blue islands might benefit from lax state-level business regulation, which lets them grow into large-scale job magnets for their states. That entices young, educated in-migration. Since both Gen Z and Millennials, as well as those with college degrees, are more likely to vote blue, new workers in blue island cities grow a state's Democratic base."

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Data from moveBuddha's Moving Cost Calculator, based on searches made between January 2020 and March 2024, found that seven of the eight states with the highest inflow of people ratios were traditionally Republican-controlled. Conversely, all eight of the states with the highest outflow of people ratios were Democratic.

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In conclusion, moveBuddha suggests that the influx of people to the main cities of Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia could result in these states "swinging blue in 2024." The report acknowledges that many Republicans, especially retirees, are also relocating to historically GOP-controlled states. However, it implies that this is more than counterbalanced by Democrats moving to the major urban areas.

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Ryan Carrigan, co-founder of moveBuddha, stated, "Ultimately, most red states are staying red while most blue states are staying blue. But in a handful of states, moves matter. And moves from out of state will matter a lot in this year's election, especially in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona."

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In the year leading up to July 2022, traditionally Republican states such as Florida, South Carolina, and Idaho all experienced population growth of over 1.5 percent. In contrast, the populations of Democratic states like California, New York, Illinois, and Oregon declined, as per Census Bureau data.

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A recent poll from Florida Atlantic University (FAU) and Mainstreet Research found Biden leading Trump in the key swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by seven points, two points, and two points, respectively. As reported by Newsweek, the publication is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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