New Report Shows Who's REALLY Ahead In CA Senate Primary

By Greg Moriarty | Sunday, 03 March 2024 01:50 PM
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In a recent poll for California's open Senate primary, Republican candidate and ex-professional baseball player Steve Garvey has taken a narrow lead over Democratic Representative Adam Schiff and other left-leaning House members.

The poll, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Los Angeles Times, revealed that Garvey secured 27% support from likely California voters, while Schiff trailed slightly behind at 25%. Democratic Representatives Katie Porter and Barbara Lee followed with 19% and 8% respectively.

The poll, released on Friday, showed a significant rise for Garvey, who has climbed 14 points since January. In contrast, Schiff's standing increased by four points, Porter's by two, and Lee's fell by one. The candidates are competing for the seat left vacant by the late Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, currently held by Laphonza Butler, the former president of the pro-abortion group EMILY's List.

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The poll suggests that Garvey and Schiff, as the top two vote-getters, would progress to the general election, leaving Porter and Lee behind. However, the survey also indicated that Schiff would defeat Garvey with 53% of the vote to Garvey's 38%, with 9% of likely voters still undecided.

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A potential general election face-off between Schiff and Porter would be more closely contested, with the poll showing the two tied at 30%, and 40% of respondents unsure of their choice.

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The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll, conducted from February 22 to February 27, surveyed 3,304 likely California voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2%.

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The Democratic vote has been divided among the three prominent House members, making the race for the top spot an expensive one. Schiff leads the Democratic field in fundraising with $31.4 million, followed by Porter's $28 million and Lee's $5 million, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings. Schiff has also outspent both of his colleagues, with expenditures of $38.7 million this cycle, and enters the primary with more cash on hand than Porter and Lee combined.

Garvey, who entered the race on October 10, has raised $2.1 million, spent $1.4 million, and currently has $758,260 in hard dollars, according to FEC data.

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