Winning Bet Or Chump Change? Largest Bet Ever On A Political Race Was For This Candidate

Written By BlabberBuzz | Thursday, 05 November 2020 12:00 AM
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A British gambler has seemingly gambled $5 million on President Trump prevailing Tuesday’s election — a bet believed to be the largest-ever political bet.

The former banker used private bookmakers registered on the Caribbean island of Curacao for the bet at odds of 37/20 — meaning he could get a $15 million payout, sources said.

The mystery gambler boldly went all-in after discussing with “Trump camp insiders,” according to the report.

“Word of this bet has done the rounds and we think it’s the biggest ever made on politics,” one gambling industry source told me.

While illegal in the US, betting on politics is popular in the UK and many other countries — and the 2020 election is growing up to be the biggest betting event of all time.

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Trump overcame the odds in 2016, and gamblers appear enthusiastic about a second performance this time.

“Donald Trump will likely wake up with a spring in his step as more and more people think he could stay for another term,” the betting comparison site OddsChecker said Tuesday.

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In the last four hours, 71% of money gambled on the 2020 US election was on Trump, the site said — which the site’s head of marketing, Sam Eaton, called a “remarkable” motion.

“The 2020 election is following a very similar betting pattern to the one we witnessed back in 2016. The closer we got to Election Day, the more money came for Donald Trump,” Eaton said.

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“A lot of part-time gamblers will opt to wager on the election today, and naturally given the bigger returns on Trump, they will likely side with the current president.”

One bookmaker, Paddy Power, said that 93% of wagers had been on Trump over the previous 24 hours.

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$300 million. That's approximately how much gamblers have wagered on the U.S. election using U.K.-based Betfair Exchange, marking the platform's single largest betting event of all time.

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Jessica O’Reilly of Ladbrokes said that “even at the eleventh hour, punters are continuing to back Trump at the odds on offer.”

With just one day to go before the U.S. presidential election, the race between President Donald Trump and former vice president Joe Biden could be tightening more than polls are letting on, at least according to nonprofit online prediction market PredictIt.

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Key swing states–where polls show Biden's lead is much smaller than the national average–are largely responsible for the disparity between polls and prediction markets: In states where polls are essentially tied, prediction markets favor Trump with about a 65% chance of winning.

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