The gross domestic product grew at a 33.1% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department announced in its advance estimate on Thursday. That was the quickest pace since the government began keeping records in 1947 and followed a historic shrinkage rate of 31.4% in the second quarter.
The GDP report — one of the last significant economic scorecards before next week's presidential election — will do little to relieve the human catastrophe inflicted by the coronavirus pandemic, with tens of millions of Americans still unemployed and more than 222,000 dead.
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With five days until Election Day President Donald Trump, trailing in most national opinion polls, will presumably seize on the remarkable rebound in GDP as a sign of recovery. But U.S. output persists below its level in the fourth quarter of 2019, a fact Trump's Democratic opponent Joe Biden is almost certain to highlight along with signs that the growth spurt is fast petering out.
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Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the economy growing at a 31% rate in the July-September quarter. The economy slipped into a slowdown in February.
The government's rescue package presented a lifeline for many businesses and the unoccupied, juicing up consumer spending, which on its own powered the surge in GDP. Yet government funding has been depleted with no deal in sight for another round of relief. New COVID-19 cases are spiraling across the country, making limitations on businesses like restaurants and bars.
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Just over half of the 22.2 million jobs lost throughout the pandemic have been recouped, and layoffs continue.
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A separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday conferred 751,000 people filed for state unemployment benefits in the week ending Oct. 24, opposed to 791,000 in the previous period. Though claims have fallen from a record 6.867 million in March, they rest above their 665,000 peak seen throughout the 2007-09 Great Recession.
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Though, what would the economy be like if Biden wins? Joe Biden has been far less grandiose than Trump about the result of his own proposed economic policies in the run-up to this 2020 general election. Is that just a difference in style among the two leaders? Or does it show a relative lack of enthusiasm in the former vice-president’s economic ideas?
In total, analysts at the credit rating agency Moody’s estimate Biden’s plans add up to $4tn of extra spending in the three years to 2024 and $1.4tn of additional taxes covering that same period.
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